Alejandro Moro Canas vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 2/6/25

Not the greatest slate of matches on offer at the two ATP 500s and they’ve been slow releasing their Thursday schedules, so we’ll head to the Challenger Tour to find our previews.

Our first one comes from the Tenerife Challenger and the Alejandro Moro Canas vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz match.

Llamas Ruiz’s win probability is just under 40%, while Moro Canas is favoured to win at 1.52 odds. The handicap is three games and the total games line is 22.

Jon Reid’s Moro Canas vs Llamas Ruiz prediction is for Moro Canas to cover the handicap.

Alejandro Moro Canas vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz Prediction: Oppose Llamas Ruiz Off Unconvincing Match Last Round

• Prediction: Moro Canas -2.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.91
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 4/10

Odds as at 8:00 am UK Time on February 6th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

Really fun stuff on Wednesday, as Andrea Vavassori had assured us of cashing the over 20.5 games before Felix Auger Aliassime retired and the house rules at Pinnacle meant the bet voided, while Jiri Lehecka dominated his first set, hurt himself and retired in the second set, meaning that bet counts as a loss. This start to the year on previews is a microcosm as to why I believe in betting a higher volume. If you have an edge, you want to utilise it as much as possible to reduce variance.

Now, onto the match. The market has been opposing Llamas Ruiz like crazy, and though it was pretty poor to back an unproven player who has played primarily weaker tournaments in South America, I agreed with the early movement here.

In fact, had this preview been written at market open, the -2 games would’ve been a much larger bet. As it’s being written with the handicap at -2.5, there’s still value to be had – and there’s certainly more now that some in the market have offered some resistance and pushed the handicap back down to -2.5 games.

Fact is, Llamas Ruiz is a solid player. Even returning from injury trying to bring his game up to the level it was at before he was injured. It may not be there just yet, and that’s why as he steps up to take on a better player in his countryman, I’m going to oppose him this time around.

His serve was a bit too vulnerable for my liking in his first match, and with his prior match ending going three sets and Llamas Ruiz nearly blowing a 5-1 third set lead, I’m sceptical about his chances to progress again.

He’s playing someone that can be undervalued on hard courts, is a big step up in competition and he’s still not at his best level and off a longer match in which his legs looked heavy at the end. Everything lines up well to oppose the younger of the two Spaniards. I can’t wait to see how this one loses.

More tennis previews can be found on the expert insights page.

Alejandro Moro Canas Recent Form

The world No. 164 picked up a much-needed win in his opening round match against Denis Yevseyev in three sets. That snapped a three-match losing streak that saw him lose to established main tour professionals or borderline main tour professionals with a retirement in the third match against Alibek Kachmazov to round things out.

Now he takes on his compatriot that he’s fared well against in the past with a potential stamina edge for a few reasons and certainly a hard court game is closer to its peak than Llamas Ruiz’s at the moment.

I have this match as a two break of serve handicap, so either an expensive (1.83 region) -3.5 or cheap (2.00 odds range) -4.

That’s enough for me to get involved.

Pablo Llamas Ruiz Recent Form

Prior to the start of the 2025 season, the last match the 23-year-old played was all the way back at the French Open, where he lost in qualifying to Jesper de Jong.

His start to the year has been rocky, but that’s to be expected as he gets back up to speed. He’s been competitive in all but one match so far, though this is arguably the best opponent he’ll have played this year.

With the serve still needing to get back to its best and the potentially heavy legs, it’s hard to see him putting up too much of a fight. The nice part about opposing him on a handicap like three games is that we have more potential to cover this in three sets if need be and with the potential for a lopsided set in Moro Canas’ favour more likely, this bet becomes even more enticing.

Alejandro Moro Canas H2H – Stat of the Match

Moro Canas has gotten the better of Llamas Ruiz in their four meetings. The latter did take the first meeting by a one break of serve margin back in 2022 on the clay of Maspalomas.

Since then, however, Moro Canas has won three straight (two on hard courts, one on clay) three set matches, with a lopsided set in each of those three victories.

Safer Gambling

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