Thiago Monteiro vs Chun Hsin Tseng Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 2/19/25

Our final preview for Wednesday also comes from the ATP’s Rio Open as the crowd cheers on the final home favourite remaining in the tournament in Thiago Monteiro vs Chun Hsin Tseng.

Tseng’s win probability is only 36%, with Monteiro favoured to win at 1.50 odds. The handicap is 2.5 games and the total games line is 22.5.

Jon Reid’s Monteiro vs Tseng prediction is for Monteiro to cover the handicap.

Thiago Monteiro vs Chun Hsin Tseng Prediction: Side With More Proven Lefty with Home Crowd at his Back

• Prediction: Monteiro -2.5 Games & Monteiro -3 Games
• Best Odds: 1.83 & 2.04
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 2/10 & 2/10

Odds as at 3:00 am UK Time on February 19th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

Much like the other preview from Rio de Janeiro with Nicolas Jarry vs Francisco Comesana, we’re going to back the far more talented, established ATP Tour player in Monteiro. Also similar to Jarry, Monteiro brings a nice combination of comfort and ability on the red dirt and his ability to generate pace and still play offensive tennis.

That is something Tseng simply does not do well. He’s underpowered and almost forced into a more defensive style. In fact, coming up as a prospect, he probably would’ve been more comfortable on hard courts, but the nature of his game has meant that in the last three years he’s been pretty much forced to become a more competent player on the clay – which rewards the defensive, grinding style far more.

The 23-year-old may have been able to get by the last lefty he played in Alejandro Tabilo, thanks to the slump he’s been in and his complete lack of confidence and consistency, but pulling it off again against a much more talented player won’t be nearly as simple.

I have this handicap much closer to 3.5 or four games than three.

More tennis previews can be found on the expert insights page.

Thiago Monteiro Recent Form

Though he’s just 4-4 on the year, I actually think the return through eight matches has been just fine for the veteran lefty. Let’s consider those eight matches. The first two were losses to the world No. 2 on a quick hard court – not exactly his domain.

He then qualified for a major on quick hard courts without dropping a set before pushing Kei Nishikori to five sets in the opening round.

Finally, he had a disappointing loss last week in a third set tiebreak early in Buenos Aires, but bounced back with a solid match against a fellow clay court ATP Tour quality lefty in Facundo Diaz Acosta to get started in Rio de Janeiro.

With his preference for clay courts, heavy groundstrokes, strong serve and big forehand, Monteiro can be a threat on his day.

Throw in impressive hold plus break numbers in the last year on the main circuit on the red dirt and I think he’s proven enough to warrant more respect than this against a subpar opponent.

Chun Hsin Tseng Recent Form

Prior to this week, Tseng had actually been in pretty poor form. He’d won just one match in his last seven tournaments played dating back to last year, and that match was against a lower-end Challenger clay court opponent on a hard court.

The lone legitimate ATP Tour he’s taken on in 2025? Marcos Giron at Davis Cup, which he lost 2-6, 2-6 on home soil in Taiwan.

Other than that, he’s played a slew of lower ranked players, lost to some and needed close three setters to beat others.

At this point, there is a huge overreaction in the market to beating a Tabilo that has completely lost the plot and who headed back to South America to deal with a physical issue after Australia, which also may have played a role in the opening round encounter.

Thiago Monteiro vs Chun Hsin Tseng H2H – Stat of the Match

The only prior meeting came at a Challenger in 2023 where Monteiro eviscerated the Taiwanese 6-2, 6-1. It doesn’t surprise me, as Tseng doesn’t have much to his game and Monteiro is far too strong on serve, even on clay, for someone like Tseng to keep up with consistently.

Still, that is a more tail outcome kind of score, so we don’t want to read too much into it.

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