Gael Monfils vs Jan Lennard Struff Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 3/6/25

Our other preview from Tuesday’s action from the ATP singles draw at BNP Paribas Open comes in the Gael Monfils vs Jan Lennard Struff match. 

Struff’s win probability is only 43%, while Monfils is favoured to win at 1.67 odds. The handicap is 2.5 games and the total games line is 23.

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Jon Reid’s Monfils vs Struff prediction is for Monfils to win and cover the handicap.

Gael Monfils vs Jan Lennard Struff Prediction

• Prediction: Monfils to win & Monfils -2.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.67 & 2.03
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 4/10 & 2/10

Odds as at 4:00 am UK Time on March 6th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

I’d be lying if I said that the lethargic, half-baked performance Monfils out forth last week wasn’t front of mind for me as I handicap this match. It’s important to try and push those kinds of overreactions to the side though, especially in a matchup that should favour the showman in a big way.

He’s more well rounded than Struff, he can match Struff’s strong serve, he can dictate play when he’s swinging through his groundstrokes and when he does get passive from the baseline – something that he tends to do within matches – it’s not even a negative in this match, seeing as Struff can be prone to mistakes and that backboard-like style is well suited to exploiting that weakness.

Another Struff strength is his ability to shorten points by charging the net, but Monfils’ ability to track balls down, hit on the run and execute impressive passing shots also neutralises that.

Without much form to write home about, I struggle to see what Struff does to trouble Monfils. The only reason that Monfils isn’t an even larger bet than I have listed here is because of the fact that he can put up those random no-show performances at any moment as he did against Matteo Berrettini in Dubai (especially on serve).

Gael Monfils Recent Form

Went over Monfils’ excellent form in 2025 last week, and one loss to Berrettini doesn’t change that.

He won Auckland, then backed it up by reaching the second week at the Australian Open. He did retire against Ben Shelton in the fourth set, but took some time off before coming back in the Middle East a week ago.

The game is still complete and he showed he clearly has enough in his legs to play at a high level and do it match after match in the same week.

He’s just a superior player to Struff and I think the handicap should reflect that more accurately.

Jan Lennard Struff Recent Form

After surging up the rankings into the top-25 back in 2023, Struff has come back to earth in the last little while. He’ll have a deep run or two at a 250 level tournament when his serve is clicking against weaker fields, but other than that, his misses at net, his hot-and-cold serve and the low-margin error prone game are far too prohibitive of regaining that top-25 status.

As illustrated above, those weaknesses are also particularly bad to have in a matchup against someone like Monfils, who is perfectly equipped to take advantage and exploit them.

He’s not faster, he’s not better defensively, his advantage when it comes to the first serve isn’t as great as it usually is, and even at net and wingspan wise, the big man is taking on another big that is more than capable of closing passing windows if he’s in the forecourt.

Gael Monfils vs Jan Lennard Struff H2H – Stat of the Match

Considering the matchup advantages that Monfils has (outlined above), it’s no surprise that Monfils has won all three matches between these two (including one in January in New Zealand), dropping just one set in those contests.

I was concerned entering 2025 about his age and what he had left. He’s blown those fears out of the water though, and I trust him in this spot.

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