Rudolf Molleker vs Dennis Novak Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, 12/9/24

We’ll start Thursday’s ATP Challenger Tour previews from the Invest In Szczecin Open where rain has been wreaking havoc on the order of play. As such, this match moves from Wednesday to Thursday. Let’s break down Rudolf Molleker vs Dennis Novak.

Novak’s win probability is just under 40%, while Molleker is favored to win at 1. odds. The handicap is three games and the total games line is 22.

Jon Reid’s Molleker vs Novak prediction is for Novak to win.

Rudolf Molleker vs Dennis Novak Prediction: Veteran Undervalued in Matchup of Aggressive Clay Courters

• Prediction: Novak to win
• Best Odds: 2.56
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds updated at 2:00 am UK Time on September 12th, 2024. 

Molleker may be having one of his best seasons to date and playing some strong tennis in recent times, but he’s not exactly a bastion of consistency – whether within matches or from a day-to-day standpoint.

I’m not sure he should be a clear favorite against a veteran who can play with aggression and power himself, while not playing such a volatile style.

Taking nice underdog odds here in what I price up as a fairly close matchup feels like a smart move. A sub-40% break-even percentage seems far too low.

You can find more previews from the Challenger Tour and WTA Tour over on the expert insights page.

Rudolf Molleker Recent Form

Molleker reached the semis in Tulln, Austria at his last event and did beat Albert Ramos Vinolas in the opening round here, but other than that, it had been a while since we saw the German play strong tennis consistently.

He plays with a very aggressive, big-hitting style, but he hasn’t yet refined it as much as he probably needs to and that leads to a lot of high-variance matches with a slew of unforced errors.

Before winning four of his last five matches, Molleker was on a five-match losing skid and had lost eight of nine on the professional circuit.

On a macro level, Molleker has done well to start making more deep runs on the Challenger Tour, but week-to-week he still has far too many early exits. That’s a by-product of his still-unsustainable style.

Dennis Novak Recent Form

Novak hasn’t played all that much since June (likely the big reason the market simply doesn’t trust him in this matchup), but he is on his best surface, has plenty of talent and firepower, and looked like he may have shaken some rust off in his opening match against Polish youngster Tomas Berkieta.

Though injuries have slowed him a bit in recent years, the Austrian has still managed to reach a trio of Challenger quarterfinals this year on the dirt.

If he can hold up physically, he should be in a prime position to pull off the upset.

Rudolf Molleker vs Dennis Novak H2H – Stat of the Match

These two have only met once, way back in 2019. It was on clay, but a match that long ago and that ended in a third-set tiebreak doesn’t seem like a very relevant data point. That said, Novak did come out on top in that contest.

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