Filip Misolic vs Bernabe Zapata Miralles Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 3/26/25

After the egregiously poor results from the Miami Open, I’ve decided to drop down to the ATP’s Challenger Tour for Wednesday’s bets. We’ll start in Girona with Filip Misolic vs Bernabe Zapata Miralles.

Zapata Miralles’ win probability is 45%, while Misolic is favoured to win at 1.68 odds. The handicap is 2.5 games and the total games line is 21.5.

Jon Reid’s Misolic vs Zapata Miralles prediction is for Misolic to win.

Filip Misolic vs Bernabe Zapata Miralles Prediction: Austrian to Upset Local Crowd on Wednesday

• Predictions: Misolic to win & Misolic -3 Games
• Best Odds: 1.68 & 2.09
• Bookmakers: Unibet & Pinnacle
• Stakes: 4/10 & 3/10

Odds as at 2:00 am UK Time on March 26th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

When losing something like 14/16 bets in recent weeks with these previews, it starts to feel like winning bets simply won’t ever come with regards to these daily pieces. This is another spot I like though, with one both guys preferring to play on clay, but currently at different levels or on different trajectories at the moment and the better of the two not having played as much on Tuesday.

Misolic has already reached a Challenger final in 2025 and looked really strong in qualifying. He does have more offensive firepower to his game and with Zapata Miralles’ patented consistency not being as present of late (which is almost entirely responsible for the precipitous drop in his ranking), he should have the upper hand matchup wise.

Then there’s the fact that both these guys came through the qualifying draw, but with all the rain in Girona, the Spaniard was actually forced to finish his first match early on Tuesday and then play another long three setter later in the day.

Misolic, on the other hand, was one of the few to finish his first qualifying match on Sunday or Monday and only had to play the one match on Tuesday to advance into the main draw.

That could present a big advantage for him if this requires a deciding set.

More tennis previews can be found on the expert insights page.

Filip Misolic Recent Form

Prior to qualifying for this tournament’s main draw, Misolic had actually been on a three-match losing skid. The Kigali loss to Guy den Ouden really stood out as a bad one, but I wonder if the mix of wind and altitude made it tough on Misolic, considering how lopsided the score was for his Dutch opponent when he was the more talented of the two players.

Zsombor Piros has always been a talent across surfaces and Raphael Collignon was in the midst of a nine-match winning streak when Misolic ran into him. I’m fine with those losses if I’m being honest, as Zapata Miralles isn’t on either of their levels anymore with how his game has disintegrated.

Finally, it’s also worth talking about the medium to medium slow hard courts in Tenerife yielded nice results for the world No. 246. He made the final, losing only to ATP Tour regular Pablo Carreno Busta, who was still rebuilding his ranking after an injury kept him out and saw his ranking tumble.

With a better serve and forehand combination, yet plenty of weight of shot and comfort on clay, I think he’s the more well rounded player in better form who plays more front foot tennis. That’s enough for me to say he should be a bigger favourite than this.

Bernabe Zapata Miralles Recent Form

It has been a rough stretch for Zapata Miralles in the last year or so. The former top-40 is now sitting outside of the world’s top-300, with his start to this season so bad he dropped down to the ITF circuit, where he made a final and lost to someone he should’ve beaten fairly easily.

Rain has also followed him around, with that ITF tournament he ran deep in taking forever to complete and now the rain in Catalonia forcing him to play two qualifying matches in a day and then play every day the rest of the week so long as he wins.

One could say his form is on the same level as mine with the two match per day sample size previews. Ice cold.

Almost all of it is down to losing his best quality – the ability to prolong rallies. Without much power, Zapata Miralles is used to working the ball back and forth, trying to open up a bit more space with each groundstroke, allowing him to finish the point six or seven shots into the point. Problem is, he can’t get to the sixth or seventh point in rallies without first committing an unforced error.

That leaves him with no other path to victory a lot of the time.

Filip Misolic vs Bernabe Zapata Miralles H2H – Stat of the Match

Though these two are both regulars on the Challenger circuit and both prefer playing on the red dirt, they’ve actually never crossed paths before. Could be that Zapata Miralles was actually playing on the top tour when Misolic was making his way into Challenger draws, but the regression from the 28-year-old has them playing in the same draws nowadays.

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