Miomir Kecmanovic vs Nuno Borges Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, August 6th

Let’s get to another preview from the National Bank Open’s first round, as we find value in the Miomir Kecmanovic vs Nuno Borges match that both men will want to win with prize money and ranking points on the line in an ATP Masters 1000 tournament.

Borges’ win probability is set at just 42.5%, while Kecmanovic is favored to win at 1.65 odds. The handicap is two games and the total game line is 22.5.

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Our Kecmanovic vs Borges prediction is for Borges to win.

Miomir Kecmanovic vs Nuno Borges Prediction

• Prediction: Borges to win
• Best Odds: 2.35
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds updated at 11:30 am UK Time on August th, 2024. 

Put simply, I just don’t believe in Kecmanovic’s style enough to believe he should be a clear favorite against someone as solid as Borges. Is there a path to victory for the Serbian? Of course. He likes to try and hit small targets in the outer thirds of the court and when successful, he’s awfully tough to beat.

It also means he misses a lot of shots though and gifts points to his opponents when he’s not redlining. He’s not necessarily underpowered from the baseline or on serve, but I certainly wouldn’t consider him a bruiser when it comes to his ball striking.

Borges isn’t exactly a guy that crushes the ball either, but two things are important here. First, he plays with a much higher margin for error style, which I like. Second, I think he’s shown this year that quicker conditions may be beneficial for him.

Though his consistent style would normally inspire confidence on slower surfaces, this season he’s been at his most vulnerable against defensive-minded players in slower conditions. It’s almost as though he can outlast aggressive opponents on hard courts, but his somewhat underpowered game gets a boost on serve when playing on quicker courts.

These conditions seem to be the perfect balance for Borges and I’m happy to back the Portuguese in a contest where he presents nice value as a 2.35 odds underdog.

Miomir Kecmanovic Recent Form

The 2024 season has been a stop-and-start kind of year for Kecmanovic who has made two quarterfinals on tour and the second week of one of the three grand slams but has bowed out early far more often.

It speaks to the style he employs as I mentioned above. He doesn’t play with much margin and when it works, he can beat some pretty tough opponents. When it doesn’t, he’ll hit his way out of a tournament without much fuss.

Tough to trust him as a favorite, and easy to oppose him with a quality player, especially one who can prolong points and wait out those errors.

Nuno Borges Recent Form

The 27-year-old has also had a topsy-turvy season. The difference? His peaks have resulted in titles at high-end Challengers (Phoenix) or on the main circuit (Bastad, albeit against a fairly weak field).

Yes, he will run into opponents every so often that hit him off the court, or lose early in grass court events (not his jam), but he’s also held his own plenty, won against players who can outhit him, and managed to pull off several upsets.

I’m going to back the more solid player who has found himself playing better and better in quicker conditions this season.

Miomir Kecmanovic vs Nuno Borges H2H – Stat of the Match

Only one meeting between these two came back in early 2023 on the medium-slow courts of Delray Beach, where Kecmanovic won 6-3, 7-5. We’ll see if he can double up the success, but I have a feeling that the prior meeting that took place about 18 months ago is weighing too heavily into this pricing.

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