Milos Raonic vs Cam Norrie Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, June 17th

Our first tip for Monday’s action from the pair of ATP 500s on offer comes in the Milos Raonic vs Cam Norrie match from the Cinch Championships. Our Raonic vs Norrie prediction is for Raonic to cover the games handicap.

Norrie’s win probability is about 42%, while Raonic is favored to win at 1.63 odds. The handicap is 1.5 games and the total games line is 23.5.

Milos Raonic vs Cam Norrie Prediction: Canadian Showing Value on the Handicap

• Prediction: Raonic -1.5 Games & Raonic -2 Games
• Best Odds: 1.87 & 2.06
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10 & 3/10

Updated on June 17th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Let me take a moment off from backing underdog after underdog and suggest betting….a favourite on grass courts. I know, I know, not my modus operandi, but in this case, I feel it’s the right move and there’s plenty of value to be had for a few reasons.

First, though Raonic isn’t the best returner, which usually leads me to betting an over, Norrie is in pretty poor form of late and his serve isn’t untouchable.

Second, the big-serving Canadian came back last season after a prolonged absence and was incredibly competitive on grass courts, where his missile-like first serve proved very effective.

This season he was only out a few months rather than nearly two years, and he looked really good in ‘s-Hertogebosch last week.

With a 1.63 valuation to win the match and grass court handicaps being lower than other surfaces, I can’t help but think him winning by two games is a value proposition.

We have another tip from the Terra Wortmann Open in Germany up over on our expert insights page.

Milos Raonic Recent Form

It might seem nuts that the player ranked nearly 160 spots lower and who doesn’t play a full schedule would be the favorite, much less be showing value as the favorite.

Tennis is a sport of matchups, form, and ability on a given surface, though, and that’s what makes me like Raonic. His game is perfect for the grass, he looked good last week (and even last year, despite only playing four matches on the grass in 2023) and he just showed us he can get into return games against underpowered players, while it takes an elite returner and in-form player to get into his.

Yes, he lost to Alex de Minaur last week in the Netherlands, but the Aussie went on to win that event, is an elite returner and is having a career season.

Prior to that, he had a pair of impressive wins against Roberto Bautista Agut and Jordan Thompson to kick his grass season off and get the rust out of his game.

Cam Norrie Recent Form

Since reaching the fourth round of the Australian Open and semis in Rio de Janeiro, it’s been rough for the Brit.

Sure, he’ll have the crowd behind him in London, but he’s been pretty poor in the last few months, suffering lopsided defeats to many players in his ranking range.

He even dropped down to the Challenger Tour to get some match play in and get his feet under him on the grass in Nottingham this past week and…it didn’t go well. He needed three sets to get by Sho Shimanbukuro as a favorite around 1.25 odds and then lost outright to his much younger compatriot Jack Pinnington Jones as a 1.15 favorite.

With his form and the way Raonic has been serving outside of a match with an elite returner, it’s hard to see what there is to like for Norrie entering this contest.

Milos Raonic vs Cam Norrie H2H – Stat of the Match

Raonic has won both prior meetings between these two, with both matches being played indoors. Those were years ago, however, back when Raonic was playing at a much higher level, so it shouldn’t really serve as anything more than reassurance when it comes to this handicap.

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