Michelsen vs Ugo Carabelli Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 3/21/25

Our last bet of the week comes from Alex Michelsen vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli at the ATP Miami Open.

Ugo Carabelli’s win probability is only about 26.5%, while Michelsen is favoured to win at 1.28 odds. The handicap is 3.5 games and the total games line is 22.5.

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Jon Reid’s Michelsen vs Ugo Carabelli prediction is for Michelsen to dominate.

Alex Michelsen vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli Prediction: Easy Favourite to Back in Second Round Clash

• Prediction: Michelsen -3.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.72
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stakes: 6/10

Odds as at 3:00 am UK Time on March 21st, 2025. Odds may now differ.

Going to keep this handicap short and sweet. Michelsen is at least five games better than Ugo Carabelli, even on a quicker hard court.

He’s more talented, more comfortable on hard courts, has a better resume on the surface, has bigger groundstrokes and a better serve. The Argentine has also been very fortunate in reaching this point and was on the ropes and even lost to less talented players en route to the second round.

With the chance of a lopsided set being on our side, I think I’ll stick with the handicap rather than taking the under, as it brings the potential for a win in a three set match onside.

Alex Michelsen Recent Form

Let’s address the elephant in the room right off the bat. Michelsen retired just two games into his last match (against Daniil Medvedev in Indian Wells). It should be noted that it was an illness and not something physical that could hamper him again a few weeks on.

As for the match itself, Michelsen is light years ahead of Ugo Carabelli in a lot of what matters. He’s a better hard court player, better server and has much more offence to his game. On the flip side, he’s also a strong returner and has enough consistency to stick in long rallies, negating the only things Ugo Carabelli does particularly well.

His record may not be great this year, but when I look at the players in the same talent range as his opponent on Friday, I see a five-game margin of victory against Colton Smith, a six-game margin against James McCabe (that was in a best-of-five setting though) and a win by five games against Sumit Nagal.

Ugo Carabelli is no better than at least two of those three on a hard court. This should be a much larger spread.

Camilo Ugo Carabelli Recent Form

Kudos to the world No. 65. He isn’t the most adept at hard court tennis, especially when conditions aren’t super slow, but he’s managed to find himself in the second round of a Masters 1000 tournament.

How has he gotten here is the question though. For starters, he actually lost in qualifying and entered the main bracket as a lucky loser. He was then being routinely beaten by a soft-hitting Challenger player before getting a complete choke to win in three sets.

Not the most inspiring results and against much lesser opponents.

He’s now taking on the most well-rounded player he’s seen to date. I expect the worst result of the bunch on Friday.

Alex Michelsen vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli H2H – Stat of the Match

The only prior meeting was on clay – Ugo Carabelli’s domain – and the American actually emerged victorious, dominating the second and third sets after losing a close opener 5-7. That was back in 2023 on the green dirt of the Tallahassee Challenger.

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