Michelsen vs Smith Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 3/7/25

Our other preview for the third day of action from the BNP Paribas Open is an all-American tilt. Let’s delve into the Alex Michelsen vs Colton Smith contest.

Smith’s win probability is at just under 35%, while Michelsen is favoured to win at 1.44 odds. The handicap is 3.5 games and the total games line is 22.

For more daily tennis tips, visit the bettingexpert community, but if you want more expert tips from Jon Reid, visit our Expert Insights section.

Jon Reid’s Michelsen vs Smith prediction is for Michelsen to roll to victory.

Alex Michelsen vs Colton Smith Prediction: California Native to End Cinderella Run

• Prediction: Michelsen -3.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.95
• Bookmaker: Unibet
• Stakes: 6/10

Odds as at 12:15 am UK Time on March 7th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

Boy oh boy, the hype is getting to be a little too much for me surrounding the University of Arizona’s Smith.

I understand he’s on an absolute tear, both in college and on the pro circuit, but having watched him play a few times, I simply don’t see what everyone seems to see in him. In fact, I’ve been told on social media I’m clueless or oblivious (just a lovely place, social media) for believing so.

Here’s the thing though, his serve and forehand just won’t cut it on the ATP’s main tour week-in, week-out for me. At least not yet. Does he do some things nicely? Of course. He wouldn’t win even a weak Challenger or qualify for this tournament and make the second round if he didn’t.

Smith is an excellent grinder from the baseline. He finds the outer thirds of the court and pulls his opponent around the court nicely with his forehand and his serve down the middle (the T) is impressive.

The underpowered nature of his game, however, makes him vulnerable. Especially in slower conditions and especially against players that get points started with regularity, like Michelsen.

Michelsen is also able to grind from the baseline, possesses an advantage on serve, is more established on the professional circuit, has the much better backhand and has taken care of business often against this calibre of opponent.

Alex Michelsen Recent Form

The funny thing about Michelsen is I’m actually a bit lower on him and his game at present than many in the tennis community! This, however, seems like a manageable assignment for the ascending American 20-year-old.

The start to the season hasn’t been a head-turning one, but he’s been solid as ever. The second week of the Australian Open has to be considered a success, as do the quarterfinals of Auckland and semis in Delray Beach.

ATP 250 events have been a happy hunting ground for Michelsen as he continues to develop and while this is a Masters event, his opponent is much closer to the quality found in Challengers or 250s.

I’m not going to go out and say that I think the California native is going to win the tournament, but she shouldn’t have too many issues getting through this match.

Colton Smith Recent Form

I mentioned above that the 22-year-old has been on absolute fire. In fact, he’s already into the top-300 and is actually up to No. 212 in the live rankings entering this match. That means a win here and he’s going to be among the world’s best 200 players by ranking.

Some of the tools he has at his disposal are very impressive. I mentioned a few earlier, and think that his willingness to come to net and the timing on his approaches are also excellent qualities.

Until he manages to add more power to his game though, his ceiling is still pretty low by my estimation. That’s not to say he can’t get into the top-50 or top-100 with further development though.

It’s also why he was able to lift the trophy at a tournament like the Cleveland Challenger earlier this season. Those courts are quick and his tennis IQ, along with the conditions helping his game look more imposing from an attacking standpoint was the perfect recipe for success.

Those conditions aren’t present in Indian Wells, however. I’ll look to back him in some quicker conditions moving forward, but for this match and the clay season, I’m not all that optimistic.

Alex Michelsen vs Colton Smith H2H – Stat of the Match

With Smith having so few professional matches under his belt and having played at college for a while, these two haven’t yet crossed paths in a professional match.

Safer Gambling

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.