Alex Michelsen vs Chris O’Connell Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, September 27

Our second preview also comes from the ATP 500 Japan Open. Let’s look ahead to the Alex Michelsen vs Chris O’Connell match.

O’Connell’s win probability is only 36%, while Michelsen is favored to win at 1.50 odds. The handicap is three games and the total game line is 22.5.

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Our Michelsen vs O’Connell prediction is for O’Connell to win.

Alex Michelsen vs Chris O’Connell Prediction

• Prediction: O’Connell to win
• Best Odds: 2.77
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds updated at 2:45 am UK Time on September th, 2024. 

As impressive as the young American has been this year, I do think we’re starting to see a bit of an overvaluation on him in betting markets. He’s into the top 50 at 20 years of age, he’s won 35 matches between main draw and qualifying draws at the main tour level and he’s been able to beat some pretty strong players.

That’s the positive spin on his year. The negative? He’s primarily beaten out-of-form guys and those on a surface that doesn’t suit them, a lot of his wins haven’t just come at 250 tournaments, but ones that are often attended by almost no big names (Mallorca, Newport, Winston-Salem, and even Washington, which coincided with the Olympics in 2024) and his serve and forehand still need a bit of development to push to the next level.

O’Connell had a rough go in the spring, with physical issues potentially troubling him – his service speeds were down and he often looked labored when moving around the court – but has found his form of late. His game is better off on quick courts like those in Tokyo and he has matched Michelsen’s 3-0 record this week.

I’m not making the case he’s a better player, but he certainly shouldn’t be priced at 2.77 odds (+177 for any American readers).

Alex Michelsen Recent Form

Though he’s won 11 matches since the start of the Cincinnati Masters, Michelsen has one notable win, which came last round against Stefanos Tsitsipas – a player well known to be vulnerable on quicker hard courts.

Another four of those wins were in qualifying matches and though he’s scheduled well, I think he needs to add more to his game before he’s a sizable favorite against solid players like O’Connell.

He does have a great backhand and I think his acumen on the court already surpasses many of his elders, he can sometimes appear a tad underpowered (likely why he also enjoys quicker courts where his game gets a little more pop and the courts don’t eat up as much pace).

A 1.66-1.71 price on him to win would seem far more reasonable than the 1.50 we’re seeing, which implies he wins this encounter two-thirds of the time.

Chris O’Connell Recent Form

It’s been a big-time turnaround in weeks from the Aussie, who didn’t seem right physically in the spring and early summer.

The result? A third-round appearance at the U.S. Open, a title at a Challenger in Guangzhou, and now three wins in Tokyo to get into the main draw and then through the opening round, all while winning each of the six sets he’s played.

Since New York, his losses have come to Jannik Sinner (the best player in the world this year) and Lorenzo Musetti (a third-set tiebreak loss to another top-20 player). It shouldn’t be too surprising either. The start and end of the tennis season are where the quicker courts come up and they’re O’Connell’s preferred surface.

Why? There’s a multitude of reasons. First, he’s Australian. That means the vast majority of courts he grew up on were likely slick, fast hard courts. Second, his serve looks much more potent on quicker courts and he is far less vulnerable on serve than he would be on clay courts. Finally, the backhand slice that he employs can give opponents absolute fits and the slicker hard court with lower bounces makes that groundstroke that much more effective.

That could be especially important in this matchup, as Michelsen has an excellent backhand himself, and forcing him to go down and take some power off that shot in order to get the ball back, neutralizing one of his strengths.

With O’Connell now seemingly back at 100% and playing on a quick court, there’s no way he’s well under 40% to win this one.

Alex Michelsen vs Chris O’Connell H2H – Stat of the Match

This is the first meeting between Michelsen and O’Connell.

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