Daniil Medvedev vs Learner Tien Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 1/15/25

Our next preview of Day 5 down under at the Australian Open features a match between two solid baseliners and one of the top men’s players in the world along with a highly-touted prospect. What should we expect from Daniil Medvedev vs Learner Tien? Let’s get into it!

Tien’s win probability is only 17.5%, while Medvedev is favoured to win at 1.17 odds. The handicap is 6.5 games and the total games line is 34.5.

Jon Reid’s Medvedev vs Tien prediction is for Medvedev to cover the handicap.

Daniil Medvedev vs Learner Tien Prediction: Veteran of Five Set Matches to Be Too Much for Youngster

• Prediction: Medvedev -6.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.87
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 4/10

Odds as at 4:00 am UK Time on January 15th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

I like Medvedev here for a few reasons. The first is the overvaluation we’ve seen for quite some time on the young American. The next is that we know Tien is underpowered and struggles to generate offence. Last time out, he barely got by a clay court player, needing five sets.

The third reason is the undervaluation of Medvedev. He faced some stiff opposition from the Asia-Pacific wild card, who put on an inspired display for three sets, with Kasidit Samrej hitting some strong serves, big forehands and mixing in a healthy dose of dropshots to frustrate Medvedev. This time around, he shouldn’t face that kind of firepower.

The third is the matchup and the fact that Tien is not all that experienced playing best of five tennis or long, drawn out five setters. The fact that Medvedev can play the longer rallies for as long as he needs to and often outlasts opponents, winning later sets by big margins makes me think this number is a bit too low.

Finally, I was hoping to get the handicap off of -7 games and down to -6.5 games. We’ve got that move and I’m happy to indulge in this market now.

More tennis previews can be found on the expert insights page.

Daniil Medvedev Recent Form

It was a bit of a rocky start to the season for Medvedev, as was last year’s Australian Open. In fact, last year Medvedev spent far too much time on court en route to the final that it likely cost him the trophy, as he lost from two sets up to a much more fit Jannik Sinner.

This year, he’s already started off with a five set contest that lasted just over three hours. He’ll want to avoid that again this time out if he has any hopes of doing one better than he did in Melbourne in 2024.

The serve is the big difference maker here, along with the depth of experience in this format that the men only play four times a year.

Learner Tien Recent Form

It was a big time moving year for the teenager in terms of ranking, as Tien amassed over 60 professional wins ranging from the ITF Tour to the ATP’s main circuit.

He saw his ranking shoot up to just outside the world’s top-100 and with his qualifying run here (which was almost halted in the opening round when he trailed by a set and break to Frenchman Gregoire Barrere), along with the win in the opening round, he’s inched even closer.

A win in this match would propel him into that desired top-100 ranking range.

I wouldn’t hold my breath for that though. Tien is coming off a physical five set match himself, one that took nearly four hours to complete. For Medvedev, backing that kind of match up is something he’s done before. With Tien, however, this is going to be uncharted territory – and he’s going to have to navigate it against one of the world’s best and someone who employs the strategy of physically outlasting his opponents with regularity.

Daniil Medvedev vs Learner Tien H2H – Stat of the Match

With Tien just having come up through the ITF and Challenger Tours last season and still being so young, it’s no surprise that this is the first meeting between the two. Needless to say, it’s a tough test for Tien, who won so many matches last year, but didn’t manage too many quality ones – especially against opponents of Medvedev’s calibre.

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