Paul an Underdog with Solid Value: Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul Prediction, Expert Picks, Odds, H2H, May 14th

Our second men’s preview of the day from the Internazionali BNL d’Italia features Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul. Jon Reid’s Medvedev vs Paul prediction at 2.80 odds is available below!

Paul’s win probability comes in at only 35.7% while Medvedev is favored to win at 1. odds. The handicap is 3.5 games and the total games line is 22.5.

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Medvedev vs Paul Prediction: Frustrated Medvedev in Tough After Long Match

• Prediction: Paul to win
• Best Odds: 2.80
• Bookmaker: Unibet
• Stakes: 1/10

Odds as at 3:00 am UK Time on May 14th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

I will, however, bet the American small in this spot at odds approaching 3.00. Though Medvedev has said the pain that caused him to retire in Madrid is gone, he has also stated after a win against Jack Draper this week that the conditions are not the same as they were a year ago when he won the event and creating winners is much more difficult.

As we know about Medvedev, he does not like slow conditions where he finds it difficult to finish points (he’s not the most powerful player from the baseline, so slower conditions only make it tougher for him) and he’s pretty candid in his post-match interviews.

Paul may not be the most natural clay courter either, but his rally tolerance is decent, he was off court much earlier in the day on Monday and he has the rally tolerance that could frustrate Medvedev in longer rallies.

I’d be happier if this price was north of 3.00 and may be tempted if it gets there to add a second point to make the staking 2/10, but for now, minimal staking is fine. Our Medvedev vs Paul prediction is for Paul to win.

Daniil Medvedev Recent Form

There’s absolutely nothing wrong with Medvedev’s form. The win-loss record looks just fine and though he hasn’t dominated nearly as much this season, a lot has to come down to his serve not finding quite as many cheap points for him.

That said, his rugged defensive abilities haven’t dwindled and he can grind his opponents down so well.

Other than the retirement in Madrid, his lone losses have been to pretty big names, but the complaints about the slower conditions this year certainly give me reason to believe that strong players can stick with him. We saw a young gun with a powerful, but also strong clay court game push him to the brink on Monday, keeping him on court well into the evening and nearly forcing a third-set tiebreak.

Tommy Paul Recent Form

Though he’s only beaten the recently-returned Aslan Karatsev and Dominik Koepfer, I’d still say that of the seeds, Paul may be one of the surprise players of the tournament to this point. It’s not that he won the matches, so much as the fact that he cruised through both.

He managed to cover both handicaps without much fuss, indicating that the market should also be a little surprised at his play so far.

His game is consistent enough to translate to clay and slower courts, while his forehand can still be effective in a front-foot capacity with the way he can generate angles on the crosscourt shot and thanks to the fact that he can whip his racquet so much as he connects with the ball.

His athleticism is also an asset in these types of conditions and I’m inclined to trust the American after some fairly strong showings in his four clay matches since returning after being forced to retire in Miami where he rolled his ankle against Martin Damm in the second round.

Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul H2H – Stat of the Match

Medvedev leads Paul 3-0 all-time in the matches between them, but on slower surfaces, he’s yet to defeat the American in straight sets.

Back at the French Open in 2021 (a fairly useless comparable now), Medvedev needed four sets to beat him. Then a few months ago in Indian Wells on Paul’s turf, the world No. 16 had Medvedev on the ropes, leading him 6-1 before losing a tiebreak in the second set on the cusp of victory and losing steam in the third.

Given his ability to stick with Medvedev and the fact that the Russian has not looked strong at generating much offensively this tournament, I’m content taking some 2.80 on Paul.

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