Daniil Medvedev vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 2/26/25

Wednesday’s first preview once again comes from the ATP’s Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships. This time we look into the Daniil Medvedev vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard match.

Mpetshi Perricard’s win probability is below 30%, while Medvedev is favoured to win at 1.36 odds. The handicap is 2.5 games and the total games line is 23.5.

Jon Reid’s Medvedev vs Mpetshi Perricard prediction is for Mpetshi Perricard to win.

Daniil Medvedev vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Prediction: Tour’s Biggest Serve to Win More Often Than Odds Indicate

• Prediction: Over 23.5 Games & Mpetshi Perricard to win
• Best Odds: 1.95 & 3.48
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 2/10 & 2/10

Odds as at 3:15 am UK Time on February 26th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

I’ll keep this handicap short and sweet. Two reasons why I think Mpetshi Perricard is value come Wednesday in the Middle East.

The first is simply that his serve is the best by service rating on the ATP Tour and in the fairly quick conditions in Dubai, it’s going to be nearly impossible to break him and that alone means we should see a close match. Any close match leaves me happy to be on the 3.43 odds player and with the total games often listed at 25.5 for matches involving the Frenchman, I find it hard to believe that there isn’t value in backing the over with the number at 23.5.

Now, some of you may be reading this and saying “yes, but he’s playing Medevedev and not a random player” and while that may have been true in the past, that brings me to the second point.

This is far from the same Medvedev we saw dominate this stretch of the calendar and shoot up into the top-5 in the world rankings just two years ago. The serve hasn’t been as effective, his underpowered and pushy baseline game looks plain a lot of the time and his form hasn’t been good. He hasn’t won a title in what feels like ages and in about a month’s time he very well could be out of the top-10.

There is no reason to make him a dominant favourite against a tough opponent in conditions that favour strong servers.

More tennis previews can be found on the expert insights page.

Daniil Medvedev Recent Form

After not having won a title since May 2023, Medvedev’s downward trajectory form wise in 2024 seems to be continuing thus far in 2025.

He was out in the second round of what has become his most reliable major in Australia, lost to another young, underpowered lefty in Rotterdam, beat two middling players in Marseille before being dismantled by another young talent and then retired last week in a quarterfinal against Felix Auger Aliassime after almost being out in the opening round against his countryman Karen Khachanov (who is also out of form at the moment).

There is nothing in his results or his performance on court that would suggest he’s re-discovered the form that made him one of the three best hard court players in the world just a few years back.

This price would suggest that he has, in fact, found that form. So I’ll happily oppose the market on that notion.

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Recent Form

Though his game is pretty basic, Mpetshi Perricard’s serve-reliant game has achieved some decent results for him this season.

Though he struggles to blow people out, he’s also tough to beat in tiebreak sets with the best serve on the men’s tour.

We saw him make the Brisbane semifinal to start the season and after bowing out early against a red hot Gael Monfils in Melbourne, he’s since won a match for France at the Davis Cup and emerged victorious from his first round encounter in Dubai against Zhizhen Zhang (a match we bet on him to win as well).

With Medvedev still yet to prove himself able to play at his very best in 2025, the massive-serving Mpetshi Perricard should absolutely be live to win in this one.

Daniil Medvedev vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard H2H – Stat of the Match

With Mpetshi Perricard still being in his first full season on the main tour, this will be the first time these two have come up against one another.

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