Daniil Medvedev vs Gael Monfils Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, April 10th

The third article of the day is from the ATP’s Rolex Monte Carlo Masters as we preview our Medvedev vs Monfils prediction. Monfils’ win probability is only 32.2% while Medvedev is favored to win at 1.41 odds. The handicap is 3.5 games and the total games line is 22.

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Medvedev vs Monfils Prediction: Relentless Medvedev to Outlast Physically Compromise Opponent

• Prediction: Medvedev -3.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.93
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 4/10

Odds as of 2:30 am UK Time on April 10th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

This would be a much larger bet if not for a few factors. First, we know Medvedev despises slow courts where it takes forever to construct a point. If he can’t find cheap points on serve, we see him start to get annoyed. Who knows what that does to his motivation to play out a set if he gets down a break?

The second worry is that Monfils was making a mountain out of a molehill with his injury on Tuesday in his three-set win over Aleksandar Vukic. Perhaps he was affected, but we’ve seen Monfils limp around and seemingly struggle on the court before, only to turn it on and make a run. At some point, we need to acknowledge there may be some acting involved and not just adrenaline carrying him over the line.

Those caveats aside, I still think the physical gap here at the moment is too big for Medvedev to only be a 3.5-game favorite. Monfils has played a lot of tennis of late, has always had fitness and injury concerns, is in his late 30s now and he looked physically vulnerable last week in a loss to another guy that can extend points, except isn’t nearly the caliber of player Medvedev is in Marton Fucsovics.

I’ll oppose him here, though instead of a 7/10 or 8/10 staking, I’ll keep it a tad more conservative. Our Medvedev vs Monfils prediction is for Medvedev to cover the 3.5-game handicap.

Daniil Medvedev Recent Form

It’s been another stellar start to the year for Medvedev, who may not be in the spotlight, but that has more to do with other storylines taking up more of the headlines than his struggles. He’s still the world No. 4, possesses an 18-4 record this year and three of his four losses have come against players ranked higher than him Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner.

His serve and grind style are incredibly effective, there are very few who can stick with him physically if they try to play long rally after long rally for a set or two and the matchup in this particular match looks enticing for that exact reason.

Facing an opponent who has looked questionable at best in his last two matches is the ideal matchup to get his Monte Carlo campaign going.

I know he is not a fan of clay or slow courts, but that didn’t stop him from winning Rome last year or making the final the last two years on the slowest of hard courts in Indian Wells.He may complain along the way, but he should emerge victorious in a relatively clean match here.

Gael Monfils Recent Form

Since pushing Jannik Sinner to three sets in Rotterdam, Monfils has been on a bit of a hot streak. Semifinals in Doha, the second week of Indian Wells and nearly beating a top-10 Casper Ruud, Miami third round only losing to Alcaraz. Those are all strong results at decent events.

Now the caveat. He was definitely in trouble in that Alcaraz match when he seemed to hurt his ankle. In Estoril last week, he barely got by a Portuguese young gun who got a wild card into the tournament and doesn’t really possess much firepower and then he looked awful after winning the opening set 6-1 against Fucsovics.

Then there’s his first match in Monte Carlo on Tuesday. Monfils – well known to play up his ailments on the court; it’s part of his charm as an entertaining, outgoing player – once more looked off physically after losing the opening set and then going down a double break in the third. He overcame that deficit due in large part to the fact that he was playing a hard courter who isn’t the most well-rounded or adept at playing on the dirt.

For a long three-setter, it only took two hours and 15 minutes, so the time on the court isn’t the biggest issue, but squaring off with Medvedev when you’re not at your best physically? That’s a daunting task.

Daniil Medvedev vs Gael Monfils H2H – Stat of the Match

Monfils leads the series here 2-1, but they haven’t played since 2022. Needless to say, Monfils has only gotten older and a bit more injury-prone in that time, while Medvedev has ascended to being among the game’s elite who rarely loses to players outside of his sphere.

Not sure how much relevance we can take from that record.

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