Daniil Medvedev vs Karen Khachanov Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, April 11th

Starting the day off at the ATP’s Rolex Monte Carlo Masters, we have Daniil Medvedev vs Karen Khachanov in an all-Russian tilt that has provided some close encounters in the past. Are we in for more of the same? Khachanov’s win probability is only 32.9% while Medvedev comes in favoured at 1.43 odds. The handicap is 3.5 games and the total games line is 22. Our Medvedev vs Khachanov prediction is for Medvedev to cover both the -3.5 and -4 game handicaps.

Medvedev vs Khachanov Prediction

• Prediction: Medvedev -3.5 Games & Medvedev -4 Games
• Best Odds: 1.89 & 2.13
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 2/10 & 2/10

Odds as of 1:30 am UK Time on April 11th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Medvedev may dislike clay courts and slow surfaces in general, but he’s put his sulking days behind him and has become a tough out on slow courts in recent times. He reached the final in Indian Wells in 2023 and again this year and he won Rome on slow clay a season ago.

His game is pretty well-equipped for success in these conditions. He can play for hours without fatiguing (or at least fatiguing as much or as quickly as his opponents), he can still find cheap points with his massive first serve and he doesn’t commit many errors. That is an incredibly tough combination to beat.

Khachanov is an all-courter himself and has kept Medvedev close in the past, but moving this to clay may be a bit tougher on the lower-ranked of the two Russians since he can spray errors and may not have the offense to hit through Medvedev’s defensive play and the slow courts. Plus, I’ve seen him play a bit too passively on too many occasions this year. In a match where he’s the far more likely player to miss a neutral rally ball, that is a recipe for disaster.

I’m going to channel football betting for this bet and create an Asian Handicap of -3.75 games by splitting my stake between -3.5 games and -4 games.

More tennis tips are up over on the expert insights page.

Daniil Medvedev Recent Form

We backed Medvedev on Wednesday and we’ll go back to the well on Thursday. As we discussed in that preview, Medvedev’s season has been another strong one. Granted, that was mainly on surfaces he prefers, but even in Indian Wells and his first match this week, he’s looked really strong when not playing one of his fellow top-ranked players.

It’s incredibly difficult to hit through him, not many can outlast him, and he doesn’t have any glaring weaknesses to attack in his game. He can be had with certain tactics (he struggles to adapt when players come to the net and take his time to get to balls away), but Khachanov simply doesn’t employ those strategies.

As much as his disdain for slower conditions can make one hesitant to back him, his game looks so good on paper in this one. Whether that translates to the play on the court, who knows, but I’ll wager it does more often than not.

Karen Khachanov Recent Form

It’s been a pretty nice start to the 2024 campaign for Khachanov, who reached the second weeks of the Australian Open and Miami, has a few wins this week at a Masters event, and scored a title and another semifinal appearance at a pair of 250s.

He has, however, been pushed in a lot of his wins by lesser opposition, been error-prone this year, and been too passive for lengthy patches in certain victories. All of those things are characteristics Medvedev will punish.

This week against players with decent rally tolerance, but nowhere near the consistency of Medvedev (nor do they have the weapons), Cam Norrie and Francisco Cerundolo have both managed to push him to the brink.

He’s done a great job of gutting out wins in close matches, but when he’s stepped up to play strong returners and consistent baseliners near the top of the game (Alexander Zverev and Jannik Sinner) he’s looked overmatched. Medvedev fits that description perfectly.

Daniil Medvedev vs Karen Khachanov H2H – Stat of the Match

Medvedev leads the all-time head-to-head here 5-1, but only three of those matches have been played since 2020 – all three of those last year.

Medvedev won all three of those on hard courts, which is preferable for both of these guys. The thing is, Khachanov kept two of those contests close. I think that’s much easier to do though in quicker conditions, where it’s tougher to start points and you can avoid being pressured as much on serve.

That’s why even though Khachanov may enjoy clay court play more, in this particular matchup, the fact that clay allows for more long rallies and rewards the more consistent player greatly favors Medvedev. The fact that Khachanov hasn’t avoided unforced errors in his first two matches either gives me confidence that Medvedev should be able to elicit plenty of them.

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