Matteo Berrettini vs Denis Shapovalov Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, June 13th

The second ATP preview of the day also comes from the Boss Open as we look at our Berrettini vs Shapovalov prediction. Shapovalov’s win probability is 43%, while Berrettini is favored to win at 1.68 odds. The handicap is 1.5 games and the total games line is 25.5.

Berrettini vs Shapovalov Prediction: Strong Serve Enough to Keep Shapovalov Within Striking Distance

• Prediction: Shapovalov to win
• Best Odds: 2.33
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds updated on June 13th 2024. 

Once more we find ourselves backing a talented underdog with the ability to rack up consistent service holds and keep things very close. Truth be told, in this matchup, if you offer me either of these guys at over 2.20 odds, I’m going to back them.

Now, I know Berrettin’s reputation and ability on grass. The serve and forehand might be the most dominant on this surface in the men’s game. He’s had success on the big stage on grass before. That said, Berrettini has yet to show us the pre-injury form on any kind of consistent basis. Moreover, last match against Roman Safiullin he struggled on return (expected) and seemed to fade away physically from the baseline, with his groundstrokes becoming more and more attackable (more unexpected).

If you watched that third set, it was one-way traffic in the Russian’s favor until the very end. Does that mean we’re guaranteed to see the big Italian fade again in this one? No. Is it something that should certainly be in your mind as you evaluate the odds and potential win percentages from a betting standpoint? Absolutely. My Berrettini vs Shapovalov prediction is for Shapovalov to win.

More tennis previews are up on our expert insights page.

Matteo Berrettini Recent Form

It’s been a stop-and-go 2024 for the former world No. 6. He reached the Phoenix Challenger final and won the Marrakech 250, but also exited early from the Miami & Monte Carlo Masters tournaments.

Between injury issues and potential fatigue hangovers, he’s had a tough time playing consistently and maintaining that top level.

The other notable part of his 2024 resume is that he’s dominated almost no one. He won his first three matches at that Challenger from 3-6 down, with his final six sets of the tournament going to 5-5.

He had a few straightforward wins in Morocco, but back on a quick surface, I would expect him to play matches that look like coin flips once more (as his first match was, at best).

Denis Shapovalov Recent Form

It hasn’t been an easy few years for Shapovalov either, who is now out of the top 100 thanks to an injury absence and the inability to string together quality sets and matches on the court.

He’s another player whose talent is undeniable. He moves around the court well, can come to the net, has an incredibly explosive lefty serve and forehand combination and though his one-handed backhand can be rushed, he’s certainly able to redirect pace with it at times and if a ball is left short, he’s able to pounce on it from the wing if he has to.

The lack of point construction or thoughtfulness in rallies is a major Achilles heel, as is his mentality on the court when things go wrong. Where the best players knuckle down and look to break back if they get behind, Shapovalov tends to let things snowball a bit too much.

Luckily, errors and the mental meltdowns that come with them can be limited by strong first-strike tennis, which he should be able to execute here.

I didn’t like him as a major favorite last round against a strong server and his close match showcased why. This time though, he’s an underdog and very likely to play another one of those very close matches. That’s my signal to go from opposing to backing the Canadian.

Matteo Berrettini vs Denis Shapovalov H2H – Stat of the Match

These two haven’t played in years, but their last two matches were each three-setters that Shapovalov managed to win. They’ve always played close matches and with Berrettini most likely still not his best physically, I’d imagine he’ll struggle on return and once again end up in an ultra-right affair.

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