Rebeka Masarova vs Irina-Camelia Begu Prediction, Expert Picks, Odds, H2H Stats, News - 5/8/24

Rebeka Masarova and Irina-Camelia Begu clash in section 6 in the first round of the WTA Rome event on Wednesday  This WTA-1000 event at the Internazionali BNL d’Italia features two ladies in search of a big win setting up for a clash with defending champion Elena Rybakina in the second round. EJ’s Masarova vs Begu prediction at +142 odds can be found below.

Rebeka Masarova had lost her last four clay matches coming into the Italian Open, but two wins in qualifying brings her to a first-round appearance on Wednesday. 

Irina-Camelia Begu has seen her name on the draw in Rome for the last decade, but it’s been some time since she has seen the second round at the Mid-Major.

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MASAROVA VS BEGU PREDICTION

• Prediction: Match Total Over 2.5 Sets
• Best Odds: +142 (2.42)
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as of 7:00 am UK Time May 8, 2024. Odds may now differ.

I have the Masaraova vs Begu match going the distance in the first round of the Italian Open, and I will tell you why because that’s why I am here.

Masarova might seem like a great fade because she just played 3+ hours against Pigossi on Tuesday in qualifying. Begu is favored to advance at -145 and is likely one of the reasons the line setters put that number on the board.

Begu is always good for a set on clay as far as I am concerned, and let’s not forget that 12 – 0 run on clay en route to back-to-back titles on this surface in 2022. 

That includes a title run in Parma, Italy, so winning in Stivale is no stranger to Begu. She is finding that consistency again with an 8 – 3 record this season on the dirt, and I believe she will take Masarova out in three sets today in Rome.

The tired legs factor for Masarova will only come back to haunt her later in the match, and I see that Over 9.5 1st Set total at Pinnacle showing +110. Masarova will come out strong because she just played a lengthy battle to get here, so I don’t see it as an early hindrance.

Masarova will win the first set, 6 – 4, and then the wheels could roll right off that wagon from there. Begu will level the match at a set apiece, and then the real fun begins in Rome. 

Begu will eventually get past Masarova because of the clay prowess she possesses. It won’t simply be because Masarova is tired or not as good of a player. and Irina will have enough in her game to face Rybakina in the second round of the WTA Italian Open in Rome  

REBEKA MASAROVA RECENT FORM

As long as Masarova can keep her first-serve percentage up, she should be able to give Begu a good run for her money. The Spaniard did a great job with her service return on Tuesday against Pigossi, and she broke the Italian 5 times in 11 chances.

Masarova is likely finishing her clay season and calling it a year again, as she does not enjoy the Grass portion of the campaign. She has only played 11 grass matches in seven years on the WTA Tour, so she should be putting it all out there through this month on clay. 

Rebeka has a 61 – 36 record on clay and has won 7 of 12 matches on this surface in 2024.  

IRINA-CAMELIA BEGU RECENT FORM

Begu has a 39 – 13 record on clay over the last three campaigns and has produced 8 wins from 11 battles on the dirt in 2024. 

Despite her early exit from the previous event in Madrid, she did take Madison Keys to 7 – 6, 7 – 6 not going away quietly. 

I will give Begu the edge in return-of-serve over Masarova no matter what the stats might say. I watched that Keys vs Begu match in Madrid, and the 33% first return points won with the 58% second serve return winning percentage isn’t too shabby!

MASAROVA VS BEGU HTH –  STAT OF THE MATCH

Masarova and Begu have yet to meet on the WTA Tour.

10 of the last 15 Masarova matches on clay have seen more than 9.5 Games played.

Masarova does stake claim to one little trophy you might have heard of in your tennis life. She is the 2016 French Open winner, proving she can win games on this surface.

Begu has won four tournaments on clay in her career, two of which came in 2022. 

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