Pedro Martinez vs Diego Schwartzman Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 2/13/25

Our second preview comes back on the ATP’s main circuit as we head to the IEB+ Argentina Open in Buenos Aires to preview Pedro Martinez vs Diego Schwartzman.

Schwartzman’s win probability is only 32%, while Martinez is favoured to win at 1.41 odds. The handicap is 3.5 games and the total games line is 20.5.

Jon Reid’s Martinez vs Schwartzman prediction is for Martinez to cover the handicap and send Schwartzman off into retirement.

Pedro Martinez vs Diego Schwartzman Prediction: Fairy Tale Tournament Should End Thursday for Schwartzman

• Prediction: Martinez -3.5 Games & Martinez -4 Games
• Best Odds: 1.81 & 2.00
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 2/10 & 2/10

Odds as at 1:00 am UK Time on February 13th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

What a great story the first round was for Schwartzman. After his match was pushed from Tuesday to Wednesday against Nicolas Jarry, the diminutive Argentine pulled off the shocking upset in three sets to advance and set up a meeting with Martinez.

Here’s the thing, that match being pushed back means he now has to play again on Thursday. Though he was once able to back up long matches and play physically day-in, day-out, Schwartzman is set to retire, aging and has barely played since the U.S. Open last summer. The first round tilt with Jarry taking nearly three hours won’t help his chances, especially with Martinez able to make things physical.

I can’t help but think that this seems an even tougher matchup for Schwartzman given the circumstances than his last round against a Jarry who looked far too content to push his forehands into play, yet Schwartzman is being given a better chance to pull off this upset. That’s a bit of an overreaction to one win for my liking.

If you’re not comfortable going after this bet prematch, there’s always a chance to watch and see how Schwartzman looks and get involved live if there’s a close first set that is physical and takes a while to play out.

More tennis previews can be found on the expert insights page.

Pedro Martinez Recent Form

After a grueling match to get his clay season going against Damir Dzumhur, Martinez will have an advantage of two heading into this one. The first is that he’s match fit and probably much more ready to back up a long match.

The second? The first two sets of that contest against Dzumhur were fairly quick and the vast majority of the match (in fact, all but the third set tiebreak) was played on Tuesday with Martinez only coming back to play a few points on Wednesday before getting to rest.

He’s got the rigid solidity from the baseline to wear Schwartzman down, he’s a clay court natural and I’m content giving up a four-game head start.

Diego Schwartzman Recent Form

I mentioned earlier that Schwartzman hasn’t played very much at all in recent times. He announced last year that this tournament – his home country’s capital event – would be his last.

That means he took off the end of the 2024 season and then played just one warmup match last week at a Challenger in Rosario to get himself up to speed. Needless to say, not only is he underpowered, but it’s hard to believe that he’s anywhere near where he needs to be physically to deal with a second match in two days against someone like Martinez.

Then there’s the fact that his game has declined as well, with his backhand in the last two years falling off a cliff and going from a once solid groundstroke to an error machine.+

Pedro Martinez vs Diego Schwartzman H2H – Stat of the Match

Schwartzman won the lone match – and did so easily – contested between these two. That took place about three years ago though and with Schwartzman playing his final tournament this week, it’s fairly clear that he is nowhere near the player he was back in 2022.

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