Martin Landaluce vs Harold Mayot Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 11/13/24

Our Wednesday preview comes from down on the Challenger Tour as we look at Martin Landaluce vs Harold Mayot from the Lyon Open.

These two are priced very evenly, with the match at just about a coin flip in pricing. The handicap is 0.5 games and the total games line is 22.5.

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Jon Reid’s Landaluce vs Mayot prediction is for Mayot to win.

Martin Landaluce vs Harold Mayot Prediction: Frenchman To Show Experience

• Prediction: Mayot to win
• Best Odds: 1.85
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds updated at 00:30 am UK Time on November 13th, 2024. 

It’s a stylistic contrast in this contest between up-and-coming players on the ATP’s second circuit.

It’s also an odd match in another sense. If you asked me who is going to end up with a better career high ranking between these two when all is said and done? I’d say Landaluce. Yet here I am, betting Mayot to win the match.

Why?

Well, at the moment, I like the counterpunching abilities and the smarter tactical play, as well as the control and consistency of the Frenchman a bit more.

Landaluce has also had his breakout stretch where he reached the semifinals of a Challenger and then won the very next one he entered to take down his maiden trophy at this level. That also comes with an overvaluation in the markets on the former junior No. 1.

The problem is, Landaluce still has a very raw, see-ball, hit-ball type game. That can certainly yield an outcome where he just hits Mayot off the court, but there’s also the potential to hit himself right out of the tournament.

When it comes to playing indoors, I’ve also seen Mayot’s first serve play up against CHallenger opposition and if he’s able to do that, combine it with a stronger return game and much more solid presence from the baseline, I do think this matchup is closer to a 60-40 affair than the current prices we’re seeing.

Martin Landaluce Recent Form

After a fairly cold spring and early summer of the season, Landaluce managed to reach four Challenger semifinals from August through October. It is perfectly emblematic of his game style that is fairly boom or bust and could use some refining.

The fact he’s had four lopsided losses as a favourite in the first or second rounds of tournaments in that time frame also proves the point that there’s still room to develop for one of the game’s more talented youngsters.

I’m well aware I’m going to lose bets like this a solid amount of the time, but I have Landaluce winning this closer to 45% of the time than the 50.5% implied in the prices here.

Harold Mayot Recent Form

Mayot has played a lot of tennis this season, building his ranking all the way up to No. 103 at one point before seeing it tumble a bit. It has been his most successful season to date though, with three Challenger finals (he’s lost all of them and is 0-5 in finals at this level now in his career) and an additional four semifinal appearances.

He had lost five straight entering this week – including one to Landaluce – but rebounded well in the opening round here in Lyon, beating another young talent that tends to be overvalued in the betting markets in Dino Prizmic.

With his struggles of late possibly producing a bit of recency bias and Landaluce having won a Challenger in Italy last month, I have to wonder if the market has overreacted to the form of each player in this one.

Martin Landaluce vs Harold Mayot H2H – Stat of the Match

Landaluce clobbered Mayot in Olbia en route to his maiden Challenger title a few months ago. Does that mean I’m taking a risk in betting Mayot here? Perhaps.

I do think that with Landaluce being as volatile as he is though, there are a plethora of different outcomes that could take place in this matchup than a 6-1, 6-2 win for the Spaniard. Not to mention, we’ve also seen the market adjust in a big way from that contest. A bit too far for my liking (again, down to the teenager’s volatility from one match to the next).

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