Alex Marti Pujolras vs Pedro Araujo Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 11/27/24

For our first preview on Wednesday from the ATP Challenger Tour, we’ll look more at the Alex Marti Pujolras vs Pedro Araujo match from the Maia Open.

Araujo’s win probability is only 36.5%, with Marti Pujolras the favourite to win at 1.47 odds. The handicap is 3.5 games and the total games line is 20.5.

Jon Reid’s Marti Pujolras vs Araujo prediction is for Marti Pujolras to keep his momentum from qualifying going.

Alex Marti Pujolras vs Pedro Araujo Prediction: Back More Natural Clay Courter on Wednesday in Maia

• Prediction: Marti Pujolras -4 Games
• Best Odds: 2.04
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds as at 1:00 am UK Time on November 27th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

I’m going with the alternate handicap here instead of paying an expensive price for the -3.5 games. The primary reason being that although the 6-4, 6-4 scoreline is one of the more popular in the sport, it’s not as prominent on a clay court match and in a matchup I find to be more lopsided, the possibility for a one-sided set means that I can’t have an 18 cents on the dollar difference between the -3.5 and -4 game handicaps.

Marti Pujolras has been much better on clay, has done a bit more at the Challenger Tour level in the past and has the chops to prolong points and frustrate someone like Araujo, who has been playing a lot of his tennis this year on hard courts at the ITF level, on a slower surface.

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Alex Marti Pujolras Recent Form

Though a lot of his wins have come at the lower level, the 25-year-old has been playing some solid tennis of late. He won an ITF tournament on dirt a few weeks ago and has come through a pair of qualifying matches this week (one against a promising young player in Gerard Compana Lee) without dropping a set.

His lone loss in the last three tournaments he’s played including this one came against Inaki Montes de la Torre in Montemar. His compatriot ended up going all the way to the semis and lost to tour veteran Fabio Fognini in three sets.

Marti Pujolras may not have the most standout of games, but I don’t think that when he’s playing someone that isn’t as far along as him or as good on clay as he is that he needs to have the most powerful or imposing game.

Pedro Araujo Recent Form

Araujo is into this main draw thanks to a wild card with this tournament being held in Portugal. His ranking puts him just inside the top-500 and that is probably an accurate reflection of where he is currently at.

He hasn’t really had all that much success this season, particularly on clay courts, where he’s been beaten far more often than not and he’s been beaten fairly routinely by those who aren’t prone to spraying a lot of unforced errors.

Even on hard courts, Araujo has only won about two matches for every loss, with many of those at the ITF Tour level. When he’s come up against Challenger type competition, he’s been beaten fairly routinely down there as well.

Perhaps he plays up in front of a home crowd in Maia, but I wouldn’t count on it being quite enough in a matchup he may simply be overwhelmed in.

Alex Marti Pujolras vs Pedro Araujo H2H – Stat of the Match

Araujo did win the lone match these two played, but that was three years ago and came in a setting where the third set was played as a match tiebreak to 10 points – a far cry from the normal three set format here.

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