Fabian Marozsan vs Facundo Diaz Acosta Prediction, Expert Picks, Odds, H2H, April 18th

The value continues to be more prominent on the ATP Tour this week, as we head back to the Barcelona Open for our second tennis preview of the day. Jon Reid’s Marozsan vs Diaz Acosta prediction features two players looking to continue their ascent in 2024. Where does the value lie though?

Diaz Acosta’s win probability comes in at 38.6% while Marozsan is favored to win at 1.56 odds. The handicap is 2.5 games and the total games line is 22.

Check out the expert insights page for more previews, including from the BMW Open in Munich.

Our Marozsan vs Diaz Acosta prediction is for Marozsan to cover -3 games.

Marozsan vs Diaz Acosta Prediction: Well Rounded Youngster to Keep Impressive Play at Higher Levels Going

• Prediction: Marozsan -3 Games
• Best Odds: 2.02
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 6/10

Odds as at 1:30 am UK Time on April 18th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

As big as I was on Diaz Acosta entering the main clay season, he’s disappointed against competent returners. He cost us the biggest bet on these previews of the season in Monte Carlo against Roberto Bautista Agut, and I’m not sure he’ll fare much better on Thursday.

Marozsan just dispatched another player who struggles to generate much pace on serve or his groundstrokes in Luca van Assche (though that was via retirement), he enjoys the clay, has plenty of variety to his game, is the much better attacker and his backhand is pretty solid, which is key against a lefty that will look to break it down and elicit unforced errors in crosscourt exchanges from that wing with a topspin heavy forehand.

I love Marozsan here and I have this handicap closer to -4 games in the 2.05 region, rather than the -3 we’re seeing at the moment.

Fabian Marozsan Recent Form

Only a few things seem to be able to slow the Hungarian. Injuries, which have cost him time on the court in recent years, quicker courts – which had him get off to a slow start in the early portions of the 2024 season – and really strong players. He’s lost six times on the professional circuit dating back to the Australian Open. Four of those losses came to top-20 players. Another was to the current world No. 27 and the outlier loss was still in the top-100.

Marozsan also has the distinction of making runs to the final 16 of every Masters tournament he’s played so far in his young tour career. Granted, that’s a small sample, but he’s showcased the fact that he can compete with the best of the best a few times now.

It shouldn’t come as a surprise either. He is sturdy from both wings, has a strong first serve, can slice effectively, hit with spin, already has one of the better drop shots on tour at 24 years old and now has the benefit of being on his preferred surface.

We also get the added benefit of him squaring off with a player who can be tough to assess from a betting perspective. I think at times the market doesn’t know what to do with Diaz Acosta. That includes yours truly, who had overestimated in a match last week.

I think it’s clear that Diaz Acosta does a great job of beating lower-level players and those that are struggling for form. Marozsan is far from being that guy.

Facundo Diaz Acosta Recent Form

That brings me to the Diaz Acosta section of the preview.

A slight underdog, despite being underpowered and taking on someone who has proven himself at the higher levels of the game far more often? Seems a bit off to me.

Perhaps the data likes him after winning a title in his native country’s capital of Buenos Aires. Wins over Nicolas Jarry (looking more and more like an outlier), Francisco Cerundolo and Dusan Lajovic will help with his quality of competition when it comes to his elo rating, but since then, he’s beaten Stan Wawrinka (2-5 on clay this year), Pedro Cachin (winless in 2024), Diego Schwartzman (potentially on retirement’s doorstep), Daniel Rincon (a wild card) and Borna Coric (2-5 in his last seven matches).

Show me someone playing even decently in that bunch and I’ll be glad to reassess my handicap, but I don’t see one.

Decent returners have hurt Diaz Acosta, who has had far too many matches this year winning fewer than 60% of his service points in a match. Inviting pressure in one’s service games like that is dangerous on its own. Throw in an opponent who is a strong server and you’re going to need one heck of a day saving break points to have a chance.

Fabian Marozsan vs Facundo Diaz Acosta H2H – Stat of the Match

Despite both of these guys being in their early-to-mid-20s, preferring clay courts and just making their way to the main tour in the last year or so, we haven’t seen this matchup take place yet.

Perhaps that’s because Diaz Acosta has spent as much time as possible in South America on the Challenger Tour building his ranking and his form. That could be significant, simply because the fields tend to be a bit softer in those events.

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