Maria Sakkari vs Leylah Fernandez Mubadala Citi DC Open Preview and Expert Tip: Time to Oppose Overvalued Fernandez

Maria Sakkari vs Leylah Fernandez (Mubadala Citi DC Open): Thursday, August 3rd

Nice to have a simple, routine win, as Belinda Bencic looked the fresher of the two players, controlled the baseline and, as expected, was far cleaner on serve, allowing her to find the margin necessary to rather comfortably cover the -4.5-game handicap.

Always nice when the larger stakes plays end up going exactly as planned and we are able to exploit poor pricing in the betting markets.

For Thursday, we’ll stick with the Mubadala Citi DC Open for our WTA selection and look at Maria Sakkari vs Leylah Fernandez.

Maria Sakkari vs Leylah Fernandez Expert Tip

Whether we’re seeing an overreaction to the Canadian’s recent form or just the market being slightly weary of Sakkari not having played since Wimbledon, I think that making this a fairly close match in the markets is a bit much.

Sakkari is still one of the best players in the world, and a few wins in qualifying and one in the main draw aren’t enough for me to move the needle on Fernandez in what has been a fairly disappointing season of tennis for her.

Read on for more expert insights.

• Expert Tip: Sakkari to win at 1.67 with Pinnacle, using 3/10 stakes.

Maria Sakkari Recent Form

One of the more enigmatic players on tour, Sakkari is someone that has stood out as a player that should have more titles than she does in her professional career at the top level.

Known for struggles in semifinal and final matches of events, Sakkari still has an incredibly well-rounded game that allows her to run deep on a rather consistent basis. Not to mention, it keeps her in the top-10 rankings-wise.

There isn’t really a glaring weakness, with her first serve able to pack a punch, strong attacking ability from both wings at the baseline, elite fitness and strong movement.

At this point, outside of the odd match where she’ll commit a few too many unforced errors, it seems as though the problem lies between the ears.

She’s known to get frustrated with herself on court, which seldom helps her and usually just leads to more and more errors, and in big matches she certainly tightens up.

Considering her game is probably more powerful than Fernandez’s, it’s still relatively early in the tournament and she’s had the much better 2023 season, I think she should be a larger favourite than she is here.

Leylah Fernandez Recent Form

Being back on North American soil must be a sight for sore eyes in the case of Fernandez. It hasn’t been a fun season, and most of her success has come on the hard courts in either Mexico or the United States.

That narrative simply isn’t enough, however, to make me believe she’s only a slight underdog entering this one.

Her run through qualifying was rather impressive, and she hasn’t dropped any of the six sets she’s played, but simply put, Sakkari is a level above players like Varvara Gracheva, Katie Boulter and Bernarda Pera.

I’d caution people not to read too heavily into those victories when assessing this one.

Maria Sakkari vs Leylah Fernandez H2H – Stat of the Match

The lone meeting between the two came in quicker conditions and on a hard court a few years back, but the keywords here are “few years back.” Sure, Sakkari won that in dominant fashion, but a one-match sample size isn’t much to hold onto. Is it nice? Sure. Not all that predictive, however.

For the stat of the match, I want to look at something that gives us a better picture as to how each woman fares against some of the best competition on hard courts.

As I mentioned above, the Fernandez wins have been nice, but we haven’t really seen her prove herself against some of the best players in the world. She also doesn’t have any particular tool that would help keep her competitive in those potential matchups.

As a result, we’ve seen her post a 4-8 career record on hard courts against top-10 ranked players. Three of those four wins came in her dream run to the U.S. Open final a few years back and the other in Billie Jean King Cup play.

Since that U.S Open final? Fernandez has lost her last six against top-10 players, winning just one set and often losing sets by lopsided margins.

Odds as at 2:00 am UK Time on August 3rd, 2023. Odds may now differ.

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