Marcos Giron vs Jozef Kovalik Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 5/27/24: Value on the Underdog at +133 Odds

The French Open is here at long last. With the clay court major starting on a Sunday, we’ll actually jump in and start our previews on Day 2. Our first men’s preview of the day comes from the Marcos Giron vs Jozef Kovalik match. Our Giron vs Kovalik prediction at 2.33 odds is available below!

Kovalik’s win probability is just over 43%, while Giron is favored to win at 1.69 odds. The handicap is 1.5 games and the total games line is 38.5.

Giron vs Kovalik Prediction: Back Clay Courter on Day 2

• Prediction: Kovalik to win
• Best Odds: 2.33
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as at 1:00 am UK Time on May 27th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

We previewed Kovalik last week in qualifiers, pointing out how absurdly undervalued he was against Frenchman Benjamin Bonzi. Turns out we were spot on with that, as he cruised through that match.

Now we come back to the Slovak as a main draw participant as a lucky loser after he suffered a tough loss from a set and 5-4 up two points from victory in the final qualifying round. The lucky loser isn’t just lucky to be in the draw, but he should consider himself lucky for who he’s drawn.

He’s still the underdog per the market, but Giron is not an insurmountable opponent. He’s no clay court aficionado and his success this season has come almost exclusively on hard courts.

This is going to be a big test of how large the talent gap is between the tour-level regular in Giron and the surface specialist in Kovalik.

I’ll side with the clay courter to get this done, especially if you give me underdog odds. My Giron vs Kovalik prediction is for Kovalik to win.

We have another men’s preview up for the French Open over on the expert insights page.

Marcos Giron Recent Form

Talk about a player likely with one eye on the summer grass and hard court swing already, Giron has been struggling since the tour moved to clay.

His record is a poor 3-6, but it gets worse, with two of those three wins coming in Houston on a surface that is really clay in name only. Though he had a great start to the season on serve, holding at a rate we hadn’t seen before, a lot of that was a by-product of quicker courts, and his raw power doesn’t quite do it on a slower clay court. Without any kind of natural spin or heavy groundstrokes, it becomes tougher to believe in his offensive capabilities on the surface.

Even if we want to look at the fact that his base level is probably higher than Kovalik’s, looking at the results this clay season, I’m not sure he’s really played at a level that would be greater than that of a clay court Challenger player.

Jozef Kovalik Recent Form

Kovalik may be coming off a really poor loss late last week, but fortunately for him, he gets a crack at the main draw anyway. He’s also been playing some pretty strong tennis this spring.

Granted, it’s been on the lower Challenger circuit, but winning a pair of titles and reaching a third final is impressive. He has a strong enough serve to avoid being under pressure game-in, game-out. His forehand isn’t going to overpower opponents, but with its heavy nature, he’s able to push his opposition behind the baseline and open up space to hit through.

He’s also very consistent and a smart enough player to know how to construct points on a surface that demands just that.

Marcos Giron vs Jozef Kovalik H2H – Stat of the Match

We have no prior meeting between these two.

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