Kamil Majchrzak vs Cristian Garin Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 3/4/25

Our second preview of the day comes from the ATP’s BNP Paribas Open, as the final round of qualifying takes place to determine who enters the main draw of what is colloquially known as “the fifth slam.”

Garin’s win probability is 50%, while Majchrzak is favoured to win at 1.80 odds. The handicap is to be determined and the total games line is 22.5.

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Jon Reid’s Majchrzak vs Garin prediction is for Majchrzak to win.

Kamil Majchrzak vs Cristian Garin Prediction: Opposing Garin the Smart Choice

• Prediction: Majchrzak to win
• Best Odds: 1.80
• Bookmaker: Betway
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as at 4:00 am UK Time on March 4th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

What a run of fortunate circumstance for Garin this season for nearly every win he’s managed so far. The Australian Open qualifying run came against a trio of guys that would prefer to play on clay, and his first round opponent – Borna Coric – broke down as the match went on, before he was beaten with ease in the second round.

In the first match here, he was well behind Daniel Altmaier until, for the second consecutive match, the German imploded after a terrific start to the match and lost without much of a fight in the last hour.

When you consider the good luck Garin has had, along with some poor losses, a game that lacks raw power and a forehand that is far too unreliable, I just can’t trust him against a decent opponent. Far too often we’ve seen Garin move on simply because of his opponent capitulating rather than anything he was able to accomplish.

Majchrzak is better on quicker surfaces, but more than capable of playing on slower courts as well and he’s been fine this season with several losses coming against tour level opposition.

I’ll trust his steady game and strong first round performance moving forward here.

Kamil Majchrzak Recent Form

I’d say the year has been a mixed bag for the Pole. Michael Mmoh, Alex Bolt, Zachary Svajda and Billy Harris are all quality wins on hard courts. Yet losses to Calvin Hemery and Manuel Guinard certainly leave a bit to be desired in his form. Even Mackenzie McDonald in the year 2025 isn’t the best player to be losing to.

Yet, the quality wins far outpace anything his opponent on the day has done, he’s won more this season than Garin and in terms of the on-court matchup, Garin is far from being a player that has the requisite firepower to push him around in baseline exchanges. Especially with courts that are playing slowly.

He may not have the most dynamic or powerful game out there, but he rarely dips to such a poor level that just about anyone can beat him.

A steady level and decent quality is all it takes these days to outlast and beat someone like Garin.

Cristian Garin Recent Form

Suffice it to say with how I’ve gone over some of Garin’s victories above that I’m not at all impressed with the level he’s displayed so far in 2025.

This is his third tournament since the Australian Open and he’s amassed just two wins. One from a set and break down on home soil as a strong favourite thanks to a capitulation from Juan Pablo Ficovich. The second also saw his opponent (Altmaier) crumble as he had several chances to win the opening set.

Outside of those matches? He lost routinely to a Challenger player and his countryman Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera and was eviscerated by Tomas Martin Etcheverry in Santiago (he put up a bit of a fight in the second set, but it was far too little, far too late).

The game isn’t strong enough nor consistent enough for me to believe without a dud from Majchrzak that he stands that great of a chance to move on.

Kamil Majchrzak vs Cristian Garin H2H – Stat of the Match

These two have each beaten each other once. Those matches were completely irrelevant however, seeing as the most recent took place almost a decade ago in 2016.

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