Magda Linette vs Madison Keys Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H - 5/23/24

We’ve arrived at the Internationaux de Strasbourg quarterfinals where Magda Linette will play the underdog role against Madison Keys on Thursday. EJ Garr’s Magda Linette vs Madison Keys prediction features odds at +105 which can be found below.

Madison Keys is the 4-seed in this W500 event in France and is ranked 16th on the WTA Tour after missing the first two months of the campaign with a shoulder injury. Keys is 8 – 3 on the dirt in 2024, and she has reached the quarterfinals in Strasbourg for the third time in three appearances at this event in her career.

Magda Linette has struggled to find wins against Keys having lost three of their four encounters, but she is 10 – 4 on clay this year hoping to provide an upset in Strasbourg.

Get more tennis picks and predictions on Expert Insights. 

LINETTE VS KEYS PREDICTION: KEYS FAVORED IN FRANCE

• Prediction: Madison Keys -4 Games Handicap
• Best Odds: +105
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as of 7:00 am UK Time May 23, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Madison Keys finally looks comfortable since returning to the tour, as her shoulder injury cost her nearly three months of tennis to start the season. The American has reached the quarterfinal in Strasbourg all three times she has played in the W500 event, her last showing being in 2015.

The line setters like Keys’ chances to progress to her second semifinal at the Internationaux de Strasbourg, listing her as the chalk with odds at -250. While Keys continues to excel on clay, Linette is posting her best season on the dirt with 10 wins from 14 matches in 2024.

That may make it seem like this could be a tight affair but I disagree with that prognosis. Madison Keys will cruise to a straight-sets win and the line setters are posting a +110 odds that a 2 – 0 win is waiting for the American.

I was going to settle for the -3.5 on the Keys handicap, but the -125 offer doesn’t get my blood moving at all. At +105, I see Pinnacle is offering the -4 with Keys, and we would need her to win by four regardless to cash the ticket. 

Keys and Linette battled in Charleston last season on clay, and after easily winning the first set, Keys let Linette back in the match and needed three sets to finish the Polish native off. 

Linette has been unable to win consecutive outings after a run to the Rouen final in early April. Magda won a single match in Madrid before being bounced by Sabalenka, and then in Rome, she won one match and was eliminated by Azarenka.

My Linette vs Keys prediction is that I suggest you grab the -4 handicap at +105 because Madison Keys will make quick work of Magda Linette in Strasbourg. 

MAGDA LINETTE RECENT FORM

Magda Linette reached the Rouen final in April, and despite a 10 – 4 record on clay, she is only 13 – 13 this season overall. 

The Pole has two clay titles to her credit, although her last title run was in 2016 at a W100 event at Cagnes-Sur-Mer (ITF).

MADISON KEYS RECENT FORM

Madison Keys is 8 – 3 on clay this year, and with two more wins, she will clinch her fourth year with double-digit wins on the dirt.

Reaching as high as 12th in the WTA World Rankings last season, Keys has fallen to 16th but she is also looking forward to the grass campaign. Keys was 9 – 1 in 2023 on grass, including a title at Eastbourne.

Key’s last clay title came at the 2019 Charleston event in the States, and she is listed at +500 to win the title in Strasbourg. 

LINETTE VS KEYS H2H –  STAT OF THE MATCH

Linette and Keys have met four times and Madison has earned wins in three of those affairs. 

They last met in Charleston last season, a battle that Keys won in three sets, and Keys won their other clash in 2023 at the United Cup in Australia. 

Two of the four meetings have needed three sets to decide the winner.

SAFER GAMBLING

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.