Francesco Maestrelli vs Jelle Sels Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, 9/9/24

With the men off to international duty (football fans who what’s that like at the moment) for the Davis Cup, we’ll look to the ATP Challenger Tour for our previews over the next five days.

Let’s begin with the IZIDA Cup in Dobrich, Bulgaria as we preview Francesco Maestrelli vs Jelle Sels.

Sels’ win probability is below 40%, while Maestrelli is favored to win at 1.45 odds. The handicap is 3.5 games and the total games line is 22.

Our Maestrelli vs Sels prediction is for Maestrelli to cover the handicap.

Francesco Maestrelli vs Jelle Sels Prediction: Maestrelli Much Stronger in Battle of Out-of-Form Clay Courters

• Prediction: Maestrelli -3.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.96
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds updated at 12:15 am UK Time on September 9th, 2024. 

As poor as Maestrelli has been of late (we’ll get to that in a minute), we have seen glimpses in the last few years of his talent. The big first serve, powerful and heavy forehand, as well as a crisp backhand, The movement may not be the best, and the errors have been hurting him in a big way against more consistent players, but the potential is there and he’s had a few results that inspire at least some confidence at this level.

Sels, on the other hand, seems like his career may be on its last legs. Almost 30 years old, Sels has yet to make it past the second round of a Challenger this season, sporting a 3-5 record in main draws at this level (and a few more losses in qualifying competitions).

His one-handed backhand is one I don’t like against the Maestrelli backhand and he doesn’t have the consistency that typically troubles the big Italian.

Finally, he withdrew before his first match in Como, and this will be his first match since that withdrawal. Has to be a concern as well.

I’m backing Maestrelli here in a match that should be closer to four games on the handicap.

Find more tennis previews over on the expert insights page.

Francesco Maestrelli Recent Form

The 21-year-old has gone through some major struggles of late, but I’d hope his coaching team would point to the fact that he’s been handed some tough draws.

Going back to June, he’s lost his opening match to the likes of Maks Kasnikowski (having a career season), Federico Coria (tour-level clay player), Chin Hsin Tseng (tearing up clay court Challenger), Samuel Vincent Ruggeri (another player having a career season) and Benjamin Hassan (in three sets).

Then there are losses in later rounds to some other prominent players on this Tour as well.

I’m not overly concerned with the form, considering he’s got the bigger game, still has the better form entering this one and the matchup should play in his favor as well.

He likely traveled to Bulgaria to turn his form around and he’s been given a first-round draw that should help facilitate just that.

Jelle Sels Recent Form

Though Sels has a winning record on the season, he’s really only found success on the ITF circuit. Further, this isn’t something new in 2024. He struggled mightily in 2023 as well, losing the vast majority of the matches he played when he was still playing regularly at the Challenger level.

The form has been dreadful, the matchup doesn’t suit him for my money and he’s not a young prospect that is going through growing pains.

I’m not sure what the optimistic case would be for Sels, as I think he’s nearing the end of his days as a professional tennis player.

Francesco Maestrelli vs Jelle Sels H2H – Stat of the Match

The Dutchman leads the series 1-0. That match came back in 2022, which may as well be an eternity ago for Sels, and was also on an indoor hard court. I’ll happily ignore that result and back Maestrelli to level things on Monday.

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