Madison Keys vs Liudmila Samsonova Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H - 5/24/24

The first semifinal match between Madison Keys and Liudmila Samsonova kicks off the day in Strasbourg, France with a spot in the finals on the line. Ej will be covering two affairs from this WTA-500 event in France today, so be on the lookout for his Vondrousova vs Kalinina quarterfinal preview. Our Madison Keys vs Liudmila Samsonova prediction featuring odds at -115 can be found below.

Keys and Samsonova will meet for the fifth time in their careers today, and the winner of this clash will play for the 2024 Internationaux de Strasbourg title on Saturday. 

Madison Keys has made it to the semifinals in Strasbourg for the second time, although it has been nearly 10 years in between appearances.

Liudmila Samsonova compiled a 4 – 8 record on hard courts before the clay swing of the tennis campaign, and she is 4 – 3 on the dirt entering the semifinals in Strasbourg.

KEYS VS SAMSONOVA PREDICTION: KEYS EYEING TRIP TO FINALS

• Prediction: Madison Keys -3 Games Handicap
• Best Odds: -115
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as of 7:00 am UK TimeMay 24, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Madison Keys did exactly what we thought she would do in the quarterfinals as she cruised past Magda Linette losing only 4 games to reach the Strasbourg semis. It was quite a display for the American who has reached the semifinals for the second time in her career, and now she has her eyes on the prize.

Keys is 3 – 1 against Samsonova and the two just met in Madrid last month on clay. Let’s just say that it didn’t work out too well for the 19-year-old Russian that day, and I don’t expect anything to change in this semifinal affair in France.

As you can see below, I have full expectations that Keys is going to advance to the finals, and we only need her to cover 3 games to grab that cash. At -115, it isn’t a play screaming with value, but Keys at -3 on the handicap almost sounds too good to be true. 

Madison’s serve was nearly perfect against Linette in the quarterfinals, as she smashed two aces home and didn’t have a single double fault against her. When you put up a first-serve percentage of 80%, you know you are in a groove and I again expect more of the same against Samsonova today.

Liudmila’s season has had its ups and downs, but let’s be honest it’s been more down than up overall in 2024 for the young Russian. With that said, what a match that was against Haddad-Maia in the quarterfinals that was! 

My Keys vs Samsonova prediction is for Keys to cover the spread. 

MADISON KEYS RECENT FORM

Did you notice it yet? Madison lost her first match on clay on April 2 in Charleston, and all she has done is reel off a 9 – 2 record since. Oh, those two losses were against Iga Swiatek, you know the #1 player on the planet?

Keys made runs to the Madrid semifinals and the Rome quarters before falling to Iga, but she is two wins away from her first title on clay since 2019.

LIUDMILA SAMSONOVA RECENT FORM

Liudmila started this season with three losses in Australia at Brisbane, Adelaide, and the Aussie Open. She then lost her first match on clay at Stuttgart, so a 0 – 4 start to the campaign was a tough way to open a season.

Samsonova was ranked 16th at the end of 2023, and she has fallen back a few spots to 19th currently in the WTA World Rankings. She was 4 – 4 on clay last year, and she is 3 – 4 on clay this year with an uphill battle ahead of her against Keys today.  

KEYS VS SAMSONOVA H2H –  STAT OF THE MATCH:

Madison Keys lost her first battle with Samsonova on grass in Berlin back in 2019. Since then, she is 3 – 0 against the young Russian although three of their four battles have needed three sets to decide the victor.

I mentioned they just met in Madrid last month, and Keys earned a 2 & 3 win relying on her serve, which will she make good use of today again. 

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