Madison Keys vs Iga Swiatek Prediction, H2H - 1/23/25

Madison Keys continues on a torrid pace to start the 2025 campaign and a semifinal match with Iga Swiatek is next. 

Keys needed three sets to defeat Svitolina in the quarterfinals and the American is a win away from an Australian Open finals.

With a dominant serve and backhand, Iga Swiatek dismantled Emma Navarro in straight sets to land in the semis.

EJ Garr’s prediction for Madison Keys vs. Iga Swiatek features odds at -120 which you can find below.  

For more expert tennis predictions, visit Expert Insights!

Madison Keys vs Iga Swiatek WTA Australian Open Prediction:  A Fight For A Final

• Prediction: Match Total Under 20 Games
• Best Odds: -120
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as of 7:00 am UK Time on January 22, 2025. Odds may now differ.

Elina Svitolina continued her solid play into the quarterfinals against Madison Keys by winning the first set but losing to the American native in three sets.

The pivotal point in the first set came when Svitolina broke Keys to go up 5 – 3. The Ukrainian native held all five serves en route to the 6 – 3 win to open the match. Keys didn’t drop another service game in the match and the American is a win away from her first finals appearance at the Australian Open.

Twice a semifinalist at the Australian Open, Keys is chasing her first career win in a Major Tournament and is up against the odds today with Swiatek across the court. 

Iga Swiatek has held all but two service games in the entire Australian Open and the Polska native used that to her advantage against Navarro in the quarterfinals. Swiatek’s backhand was a dominant weapon in the win over Navarro. 

To say that Iga is hitting a heavy ball would be an understatement as the former World’s #1 has used her power to smash her way through to the semis. With the convincing win over Navarro, we went 2 – 0 yesterday and have continued to plow out winners at the Australian Open over the last two weeks. 

Swiatek has reached her second semifinal at the Australian Open and the Polska native will be a finalist this weekend. With Swiatek favored at -550 I will point to the Under 20 games at -120.

MADISON KEYS RECENT FORM

Madison Keys improved to 12 – 1 in 2025 with the quarterfinal win against Elina Svitolina.

Keys hoisted the Adelaide hardware in preparation for the first Major of the campaign and only played 36 matches in 2024 with a 24 – 12 record.

IGA SWIATEK RECENT FORM

Iga Swiatek hasn’t dropped a set at this year’s Australian Open and the dominance for the Polska native is fun to watch.

Swiatek is 9 – 1 to start the 2025 campaign with the lone loss against Coco Gauff at the United Cup.

KEYS VS SWIATEK HTH –  STAT OF THE MATCH

Keys and Swiatek have met five times on the WTA Tour and the Polska native is 4 – 1 in the series.

The two met twice last season on clay at the Rome quarterfinals and the Madrid semifinals with Swiatek winning both affairs.

The winner of this match will face Aryna Sabalanka or Paula Badosa in the finals of the Australian Open.

SAFER GAMBLING

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.