Madison Keys vs Elina Svitolina Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, Stats - 1/21/25

Madison Keys is favored to be a semifinalist at the Australian Open but a quarterfinal battle with Elina Svitolina will come first on Wednesday at Melbourne Park.

Keys is listed at -200 odds to advance to her third semifinal at the first Major Tournament of the season after missing out on the event a year ago. The American has never passed the semifinal stage and Svitolina has yet to see the semifinals in her career so plenty is at stake!

EJ Garr’s prediction for Madison Keys vs. Elina Svitolina features odds at -110 which you can find below.

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Madison Keys vs. Elina Svitolina Australian Open Prediction: American Favored To Reach Semis

• Prediction: Elina Svitolina +3 Games
• Best Odds: -105
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as of 7:00 am UK Time on January 21, 2025. Odds may now differ.

Elina Svitolina is competing in her 12th Australian Open Major Tournament and the Ukraine native has yet to see the event’s semifinals. The 30-year-old Odesa native was a quarterfinalist in 2018 and 2019 and was bounced from the event in the fourth round last season.

As we look over the Section 6 winner’s path to the quarterfinals, Svitolina’s biggest challenge was Jasmine Paolini and the Ukrainian passed that test with flying colors. Svitolina was only a +120 underdog against Paolini so the line setters weren’t expecting a big effort from Paolini. 

The oddsmakers had Svitolina at -225 to get past Veronika Kudermetova in the fourth round and now she is the underdog with a similar price. Keys is listed at -200 against Svitolina and the American is still chasing a first Major piece of hardware.

This is Keys’ 11th appearance at Melbourne Park. Her best finishes were in 2016 and 2022 when she reached the semis on each occasion.

Keys brings a 9-match win streak in the quarterfinals of the Australian Open after claiming her first title of the 2025 campaign at Adelaide. Keys was a +130 underdog against Rybakina in the fourth round and a 3-set victory sent the American into the quarters.

I will call for a tight match and put a few games in my pocket with Svitolina against Keys. At -105, the price is fair and Svitolina has been playing inspired tennis this week so I will ride with Svitolina and the +3.

MADISON KEYS RECENT FORM

Madison Keys is 11 – 1 in 2025 with a title won at Adelaide in preparation for the Australian Open. Keys was 2 – 1 at Auckland and lost to Clara Tauson in the third round accounting for the lone loss of the campaign.

Keys starts the week ranked 14th on the WTA Tour and hasn’t appeared in the top 10 since 2016.

ELINA SVITOLINA RECENT FORM

Elina Svitolina finished 2024 with a 30 – 18 record and has an unblemished 4 – 0 record at the Australian Open to open the 2025 campaign.

Svitolina started the week ranked 27th and was in the top 10 in the WTA rankings from 2016 to 2020.

KEYS VS SVITOLINA HTH –  STAT OF THE MATCH

Keys and Svitolina have met five times on the WTA Tour since 2015 and the American is officially 3 – 2 in the series. Their first meeting in 2015 ended with Svitolina retiring from the match giving Keys the win to start the series.

At the 2017 US Open, Keys beat Svitolina again but needed three sets to win.

At the 2019 Australian Open, Svitolina picked up a three-set win against Keys and the Ukrainian defeated Keys again at the US Open of that season.

The most recent meeting was at Adelaide in 2022 and Keys won that match in straight sets.

The winner of this match will face Emma Navarro or Iga Swiatek in the semifinals of the Australian Open. I have a preview and prediction for that match on the site today so be sure to check that out!

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