Mackenzie McDonald vs Diego Schwartzman Mubadala Citi DC Open Preview and Expert Tip: Schwartzman’s Struggles in 2023 to Continue

Mackenzie McDonald vs Diego Schwartzman (Mubadala Citi DC Open): Monday, July 31st

Well, we roll into August, as the first seven months of the season have flown by. Tennis never ends, as this week brings us a trio of events. The ATP heads to Kitzbuhel in Europe and then Washington, D.C. and Los Cabos in the Americas.

For our Monday preview, it’s the Mackenzie McDonald vs Diego Schwartzman match that appears to have some value from a betting standpoint.

Mackenzie McDonald vs Diego Schwartzman Expert Tip

It’s been a precipitous fall in 2023 for Schwartzman, who has put up an abysmal 9-19 record. Opposing him isn’t the toughest of choices at this point, especially when the handicap is only set at three games.

The most likely reason we’re seeing this pricing is because of the match between these two on grass that happened last month, with Schwartzman shocking the American and emerging victorious in straight sets.

That match seems more an outlier than predictive result for both men, considering each man’s 2023 season as a whole. Read on for more expert insights into this matchup.

• Expert Tip: McDonald -3 Games at 1.94 with Pinnacle, using 4/10 stakes.

Mackenzie McDonald Recent Form

It hasn’t been the best season for McDonald, but he’s actually been pretty solid on the quicker surfaces that one would expect to see him succeed on.

He’s only 61st in terms of points amassed during 2023 to this point, but he went 0-6 on the clay (a surface he’s not very strong on and doesn’t have the game for) and has the whole summer and fall to accumulate points on the hard courts he enjoys most. Considering his rank is at 55, he’s not underperforming all that much.

He’s still made several quarterfinal and semifinal runs this season and his game does play well on a medium to medium-fast court that he’ll find in the American capital.

With a decent serve that is even more potent on a faster court and flat groundstrokes that he likes to take early, he’s well positioned for the American hard-court summer.

He has a great chance to avenge his shocking loss at Queen’s Club to his Argentinian counterpart here at the Mubadala Citi DC Open, and considering how steady he’s been on hard courts in 2023, I expect him to do just that.

Diego Schwartzman Recent Form

As I alluded to earlier, it’s been a season of horrors for Schwartzman. The one-time top ten player has been battling at recent events to stay inside the world’s top-100. He’s only managed direct entry into this event thanks to his year-end top-30 status from 2022 – a telling sign of how poor 2023 has gone.

The underpowered diminutive Argentine has always relied on solidity from the baseline, a strong backhand wing, the ability to outlast just about anyone and an ability to construct points and create openings for himself that not many can match.

This year, his rally tolerance has been shockingly poor relative to seasons past, his backhand has been too error-prone and opponents have found it easier to hit through him.

He’ll need a strong end to the campaign to get anywhere near where we’re used to seeing him at the ends of seasons.

Mackenzie McDonald vs Diego Schwartzman H2H – Stat of the Match

The key stat for me in this opening round encounter has to be the points won on serve for each of these men.

While McDonald has been as strong in that department as ever, Schwartzman is putting up his worst season behind his serve in quite some time. While it’s never been his strength, seeing his points won drop from the 60% range to just over 56% is something he can ill-afford, especially when other parts of his game have dropped off as well.

Odds as at 6:00 am UK Time on July 31st, 2023. Odds may now differ.

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