Tomas Machac vs Matteo Arnaldi Prediction, Odds, Stats, Form, H2H, 3/26/24

The men take centre stage on Tuesday, as the vast majority of matches from the Miami Open come from the ATP side of things. Let’s get our previews for the day going with our Machac vs Arnaldi prediction. Arnaldi’s win probability is 47.8% while Machac is favored to win at 1.83 odds. The handicap is 0.5 games and the total games line is 23.

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Machac vs Arnaldi Prediction: Back Italian in Fun Match Between Emerging Talents

• Prediction: Arnaldi to win
• Best Odds: 2.09
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as of 1:15 am UK Time on March 26th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

As the cold streak continues, I’ll look to the steadier of the two rising stars taking the court in this match. I’m a big fan of both, but I find Arnaldi to have more of a combination of pop on his groundstrokes and consistency.

His hard-court prowess has come a long way and we’ve seen him prove himself time and again so far in 2024.

Machac also has a very nice game, being able to effectively hit from both wings, move well, and also play without notable weaknesses. That said, if there is one shot on the court here that I believe could struggle, it’s the Machac backhand, which tends to be very hit-or-miss.

Tomas Machac Recent Form

This season has been emblematic of the hot-and-cold nature of the Czech’s play. While talented, he can also lose the plot from the baseline here and there.

He’s got some impressive wins, but also has six losses, with a few of them being ugly, lopsided affairs.

He brings a decent serve and strong baseline game to the table, but his tendency to net and sail his backhand means he lacks some serious polish and isn’t quite consistent enough for me to trust him here as a favorite.

He did beat Andrey Rublev earlier this week, but he was incredibly underwhelming against Andy Murray and as a huge favorite against a young American in his first match, he trailed most of the first set and needed the youth and lack of physicality of Darwin Blanch to come to the fore to seize control.

Matteo Arnaldi Recent Form

If we let ourselves acquiesce to recency bias for just a second here, Arnaldi has done one heck of a job to reach this point. He’s beaten fellow young talent Arthur Fils, the always-dangerous (though sometimes careless) Alexander Bublik, and a resurgent Denis Shapovalov – all in straight sets.

His serve isn’t going to blow you away, but it’s not underpowered either, and he does a great job hitting his spots and generating plenty of short balls and unreturned serves from outstretched opponents.

He can hit through his forehand, but can also hit them with plenty of spins, the margin for error, and put them in the back corner, pulling his opposition off the court.

I don’t think there’s all that much between these two, but I do believe Arnaldi has the more tactical and consistent game, so if you’re going to give me underdog odds to back the Italian, I’ll take them.

Tomas Machac vs Matteo Arnaldi H2H – Stat of the Match

These two met in Dubai last year with Machac losing just one game on his way to victory Matches with those scores are obvious outliers and I’m not sure I would take too much from that. I also think a full year on tour and a lot more experience on hard courts since then should help Arnaldi in a big way in the rematch.

Elo-wise, Machac has the slightest of leads.

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