Orlando Luz vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, 19/9/24

With no lookahead matches to preview in either of the ATP 250 tournaments in China, we’ll look back to the Challenger Tour for our men’s tennis previews on Thursday. To kick the day off, let’s look at the Kia Open in Colombia and the Orlando Luz vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi match.

Ambrogi’s win probability is 45.5%, while Luz is favored to win at 1.62 odds. The handicap is 1.5 games and the total games line is 22.5.

Jon Reid’s Luz vs Ambrogi prediction is for Luz to cover the handicap.

Orlando Luz vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Prediction: Brazilian Should Be Much Larger Favourite

• Prediction: Luz -1.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.80
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stakes: 5/10

Odds updated at 2:00 am UK Time on September 19th, 2024.

In my mind, Ambrogi is an ITF player who schedules well and finds opportunities to play in Challenger tournaments where the fields are weaker.

I’m also more convinced about Luz’s abilities to play in elevated conditions, with a decent track record late last season in events played at a bit of altitude in South America.

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Orlando Luz Recent Form

It hasn’t been the best summer for Luz, who tried his hand in European Challengers – where the fields tend to be much tougher. Needless to say, it didn’t go very well. The only upside to the string of losses was that the vast majority of them came in close fashion, losing a third-set tiebreak to Norbert Gombos, a pair of tiebreaks to the surging Gabriel Diallo, and three sets to Maks Kanikowski and Valentin Royer.

He doesn’t have an overpowering game, but he can dictate points in his service games and his forehand can be competitive against this level of opposition

He was much more successful earlier in the year in South American Challengers, where he was also able to make a few quarterfinals late last season as well. From Curitiba to Campinas, Luz looked much better in altitude tournaments and should be able to do so again in this match.

Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Recent Form

Since making the jump from the ITF circuit to Challengers in August, Ambrogi has yet to beat a Challenger Tour regular with his two best wins coming by thin margins against marginal (at best) players.

The lack of quality on his resume with regards to wins, along with his underpowered style that lacks dimension lead me to believe he should be priced as a much larger underdog. Perhaps the quantity of wins is deceiving the market, but I have him well below 40% in this matchup.

Orlando Luz vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi H2H – Stat of the Match

Luz has beaten Ambrogi in each of the two previous meetings. He won once in Santa Fe and once in Buenos Aires on Argentinian soil.

The match played at a slight altitude was a fairly straightforward one, while the one played in slower conditions was a closer victory. With Luz playing well in altitude and Cali about 1,000 meters above sea level, I’m stunned to see the player with far more to their game and in more favorable conditions such a slight favorite.

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