Lorenzo Musetti vs Gael Monfils Prediction, Picks, Form, H2H, May 30th

Our second preview from the men’s singles action at the French Open sees us off to the night session, with the Lorenzo Musetti vs Gael Monfils match taking center stage. The Frenchman is back on Chatrier with all the focus on him from the home crowd. Can he pull off another primetime win? Jon Reid’s Musetti vs Monfils prediction at 2.74 odds is available below. 

Monfils is only expected to win 36.5% of the time, with Musetti favored to win at 1.52 odds. The handicap is 3.5 games and the total games line is 37.5.

Musetti vs Monfils Prediction: Home Favourite Being Disrespected on Thursday Night

• Prediction: Monfils to win
• Best Odds: 2.74
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 4/10

Odds as at 1:30 am UK Time on May 30th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Lots to like here about Monfils’ price. First things first, let’s understand a bit more on why the market has elected to back Musetti to this point and why I’m not as concerned. It’s no secret that Monfils entered the week feeling ill. He’s stated publicly that he probably wouldn’t have played had it been any other tournament.

That said, he also said without reservation that it’s an illness bothering him (so nothing physical that should hamper his movement, defending or serve) and that the dosage of antibiotics before his first-round match made him feel much better and allowed him to play his best.

Next, we have the fact that form-wise, I simply can’t be having Musetti as such a large favorite at the moment. His form isn’t strong enough to warrant it (more on that in a minute) and matchup-wise in slow conditions at night, I simply don’t think he possesses the offensive abilities to hit through Monfils and his elite defending.

Finally, I usually hate the home crowd narrative, as we don’t know if it helps or hurts the vast majority of players, but there are a few that are clear showmen and have always fed off the crowd. Nick Kyrgios in Australia, Fabio Fognini in Italy, Corentin Moutet in France, and yes, Monfils in France as well.

Hard not to like this price so long as his illness doesn’t flare up on Thursday (you’d think with the way being sick works that he’ll be getting better day by day anyhow). Our Musetti vs Monfils prediction is for Monfils to win.

Read on for more expert insights.

Lorenzo Musetti Recent Form

I mentioned above that I can’t have Musetti as a large favorite with the level of tennis he’s been producing of late.

While he had two nice runs in Italy at high-end Challengers, he lost both finals to the likes of Mariano Navone and Francesco Passaro. Two talented young guns, to be sure, but two guys I think he’d expect himself to beat and, more importantly, two guys he was favored to win against.

In fact, every loss he’s suffered this year has seen him priced up as the favorite, indicating that the market may not be catching up on how poor he’s been playing quickly enough.

It’s not like conditions or the opponent’s style has been of particular importance. He’s lost to aggressive clay courters and more defensive clay courters. He lost early in Rome (via retirement) and early in the altitude of Madrid.

In other words, his underpowered game has been misfiring too often and players no better than Monfils have managed to beat him – and consistently.

Gael Monfils Recent Form

After looking almost devoid of energy since Miami, Monfils certainly looked closer to being himself in the opening round in front of the Chatrier crowd than we’d seen in a long time.

After a clay season with just two wins (a close win against a Challenger player and the other against a hard-court specialist), I can understand why the market wants to oppose Monfils. I simply don’t think you can blindly oppose his poor form while ignoring the relatively mediocre play of his opponent as well.

Then there’s the fact that he does seem to have his medication sorted and as a result looks much more competitive in front of the home crowd.

Perhaps he’s not yet back to 100% and that’s fine. I’m still willing to put down a larger stake on a player than I think is severely undervalued with the matchup advantages he possesses.

Musetti vs Monfils H2H – Stat of the Match

The only match these two have played saw Monfils emerge victorious. That was on an indoor hard court though and took place back in 2021. Tough to compare it to this situation.

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