Liudmila Samsonova vs Jasmine Paolini Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, Stats - 3/12/25

Liudmila Samsonova and Jasmine Paolini will battle it out for one of eight quarterfinal slots at the BNP Paribas Open on Wednesday at Indian Wells.

With the bottom half of the bracket sending four players to the quarterfinals on Tuesday, the four top sections of the main draw send four more ladies to the round of eight on Wednesday.

The line setters want the public to decide the winner of this match with even odds on Samsonova or Paolini to find victory.

EJ Garr’s prediction for Liudmila Samsonova vs. Jasmine Paolini has odds at +129, which can be found below.

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Liudmila Samsonova vs Jasmine Paolini WTA BNP Paribas Open Prediction: We’re Going The Distance

• Prediction: Match Total Over 2.5 Sets
• Best Odds: +129
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as of 7:00 am UK Time on March 12, 2025. Odds may now differ.

Liudmila Samsonova helped us cash in on my prediction for her match with Kasatkina to go the distance, but I didn’t think Samsonova would be the one still standing at Indian Wells.

After Samsonova dropped the first set against Kasatkina, the match was going exactly as I had planned until the third set transpired. The usually dependable service game from Kasatkina went to rubbish and she couldn’t hold anything in the final frame.

Kasatkina opened the third set on serve and was broken twice, although she broke Samasnova to begin the set. Regardless, down 2 – 1, Kasatkina’s final blow was the loss of serve to give Samsonova a 5 – 2 lead in the most pivotal moment of the match. The third break of the set killed any confidence Kasatkina had left, and Samsonova said “Spasibo” en route to the win.

This resurgence for Samsonova has her confidence up, and she’ll need it against 6th-ranked Jasmine Paolini.

Paolini has started the 2025 campaign unconvincingly! That is a mild statement because she’s my fellow Italian who I can’t get on too bad, HA!

Losses to Sofia Kenin, Elina Svitolina, and Jelena Ostapenko this season are less than inspiring outcomes. Jasmine has yet to win more than two games in any event to start the campaign.

I hate to admit it, but after seeing Samsonova’s effort against Kasatkina, it will lead to a win that will take Paolini out of this WTA1000 event today. I know, it pains me to say it, but the eye-test wins over my fanhood.

Jasmine will force the issue and take this match to a third set, but the +359 on the correct score call goes to Samsonova, 2 – 1.

LIUDMILA SAMSONOVA RECENT FORM

Liudmila Samsonova opened the campaign with a loss at Brisbane, but reeled off three impressive wins over Bouzkova, Bencic, and Navarro in Adelaide before falling to Madison Keys.

Since then, Samsonova has a  5 – 4 record, and the loss to Olga Dailovic at the Australian Open appeared to rip her confidence away.

The win over Pavlyuchenkova at Dubai was a quality win and the win over 12th-ranked Kasatkina should start to help Samsonova regain her belief in herself.

At 8 – 6 to open the 2025 campaign, Samsonova is following up an average 26 – 23 season in 2024.

JASMINE PAOLINI RECENT FORM

The drop off for Paolini after that tremendous 2024 campaign is noticeable. At 8 – 4 to open the campaign. Paolini did nothing to prepare for the Australian Open, and the late start has hurt the Italian native.

I mentioned the losses that Paolini shouldn’t be taking above, and the last thing she needs right now is a confident Samsonova across the court.

Barely favored to win this match might not add to her confidence, but she has to put up a big effort today to maintain top 10 status on the WTA Tour.

SAMSONOVA VS PAOLINI HTH –  STAT OF THE MATCH

Samsonova is 2 – 0 against Paolini.

In 2019, they first met in St. Petersburg when we used to have tennis tournaments in that country we can’t mention. Samsonova won that match in three sets, and the two met again during the 2023 campaign.

At the 2023 Australian Open, Samsonova sent Paolini packing from the Major in straight sets.

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