Liam Draxl vs Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 26/11/24

Our preview of Tuesday’s action comes from the Liam Draxl vs Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes match at the Manzanillo Open on the ATP Challenger circuit.

Alvarez Valdes’ win probability is under 20%, while Draxl is favoured to win at 1.17 odds. The handicap is 5.5 games and the total games line is 19.5.

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Jon Reid’s Draxl vs Alvarez Valdes prediction is for Draxl to dominate this match.

Liam Draxl vs Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes Prediction: An Open-Shut Case?

• Prediction: Under 19.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.88
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds as at 1:45 am UK Time on November 26th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

I’d normally go a bit bigger here when I make the number closer to an expensive 19-game total, but I do have Draxl rated a little lower than the market has typically, so I’m going to go ahead and play more cautious stakes, despite the number being off.

Draxl winning by a 6-4, 6-3 margin or better is far more likely than not in my estimation and the fact that Draxl is the much better player, has posted plenty of lopsided sets as a strong favourite since getting to Mexico last week and Alvarez Valdes was handed a routine defeat by another incredibly consistent baseliner makes me that much more confident this is the right bet.

At this stage of their respective careers, Draxl – who may be underpowered in a Challenger 100 or 125, but should be fine in a Challenger 50 setting – is a legitimate Challenger Tour guy on a hard court, while Alvarez Valdes has one strong Challenger run and has otherwise proven himself to be an ITF Tour calibre competitor.

Liam Draxl Recent Form

It’s been the best season of Draxl’s career, even though his lone Challenger title came a year ago in Calgary, as he’s reached a slew of semifinals at this level. He’ll look to add on to that total this week, as he has a nice draw here and then shouldn’t face much resistance in his quarter en route to what could be a fifth semifinal at this level of the season.

When paired with his ITF success, it’s no surprise that he’s managed to join the world’s top-300.

There’s still a bit of an underpowered nature to his game that likely keeps his ceiling lower than he’d like, but the ability to take care of opponents that play Challenger tournaments in late November is certainly there.

I’m sure he’ll be looking to keep his energy reserves as full as possible this week with similarly dominant wins in early rounds that he managed to put up in Puerto Vallarta.

Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes Recent Form

Last week’s breakout from Alvarez Valdes was certainly impressive, but it was also unexpected – and with good reason.

The Mexican hadn’t shown much of anything prior to that, and he hasn’t even really been all that competitive down on the ITF Tour either. It’s important to respect the form shown last week, but it’s also important to make sure you’re not overreacting to one good week and ignoring a much larger sample of relatively poor play.

I’m not sure he has the firepower to hit through Draxl, and he certainly can’t expect an abundance of errors to give him points either.

Liam Draxl vs Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes H2H – Stat of the Match

With the young Mexican being so new to this level, this is the first time these two have squared off against one another.

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