Varvara Lepchenko vs Margaux Rouvroy Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 12/9/24

Our first preview of the new week takes us to the WTA 125K in Limoges, France. It’s the annual Open BLS de Limoges to wrap up the season on the top women’s tour! Let’s delve into Varvara Lepchenko vs Margaux Rouvroy.

Rouvroy’s win probability is 46%, while Lepchenko is favoured to win at 1.70 odds. The handicap is two games and the total games line is 20.5.

Jon Reid’s Lepchenko vs Rouvroy prediction is for Lepchenko to win.

Varvara Lepchenko vs Margaux Rouvroy Prediction: Time to Back Veteran American After Opposing Her in Angers

• Prediction: Lepchenko to win
• Best Odds: 1.70
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as at 12:15 am UK Time on December 9th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

I’m positively baffled by how the market has been pricing up Lepchenko. From being a heavy favourite against both Anouk Koevermans and Elena Gabriela Ruse to now being just a slight favourite against Rouvroy. Considering that I have Rouvroy as the weakest of those three opponents, I’m surprised that after a week of garnering so much respect, she’s now the player showing value just a few days later.

There are a few reasons why I’m shifting here. First and foremost is the fact that Lepchenko is cheaper than she was in her first two rounds last week in a very manageable match.

The other is that I think the veteran actually has a fairly large matchup advantage in this one. Lepchenko with her flatter hitting and lefty forehand will get to play crosscourt into Rouvroy’s one-handed backhand. Now, while there are some players who play with one handers that can hold up consistently in longer rallies (see: Viktorija Golubic – also playing this tournament this week), I don’t consider Rouvroy to be one of them, especially if she’s playing someone whose flatter groundstrokes will stay nice and low to the ground.

I consider that wing (and the lack of power and weapons) to be what really holds the 23-year-old Frenchwoman back.

Now put her up against a player with an odd style who enjoys these conditions and now gets to be the attacking player? That’s a tough assignment.

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Varvara Lepchenko Recent Form

As surprised as I was to see the lefty win two matches last week, credit where it’s due. She played a bit more attacking tennis than I thought she’d be able to and she was certainly able to work the outer thirds of the court well.

She also took advantage of the conditions suiting her game style well. This week should see a similar type of advantage for her in that regard.

Even her loss which cashed out -3.5 games bet with Dominika Salkova took three sets and she was playing a much, much stronger and more well-rounded youngster that was better equipped to trouble her.

Even going back to Midland (another staple on the 125K circuit in the United States), Lepchenko looked decent there, beating two strong hard courters and losing to former tour regular Lauren Davis (another player who likes quicker conditions and lower bouncing courts) in three sets.

I may revert to opposing Lepchenko later in the week again, but in this one, she’s gone from being overvalued to being undervalued in market.

Margaux Rouvroy Recent Form

Rouvroy enters the main draw here after a first round exit at the W100 tournament in Dubai. Prior to that, she did manage to lift the trophy at an indoors event in Portugal. Problem is, that ITF tournament was populated by lesser known and talented players.

I think Rouvroy is currently in the process of improving her game on hard courts and making her backhand more sturdy, but she’s far from really being competitive on indoor hard courts at the 125K or main tour level.

The power is lacking, the serve isn’t great and I still don’t think the one-handed backhand is nearly far enough along to be able to hold up in a matchup like this.

If she’s going to struggle with the likes of Tessah Andrianjafitrimo, Sada Nahimana, Emeline Dartron and Julia Avdeeva, it’s going to be hard to expect her to keep up with someone of Lepchenko’s ability.

Varvara Lepchenko vs Margaux Rouvroy H2H – Stat of the Match

These two have yet to meet on court in a professional capacity.

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