Jiri Lehecka vs Hubert Hurkacz Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 2/5/25

For Wednesday’s second preview, we’ll look at the last match of the night from the ATP 500 ABN AMRO Open in Rotterdam. It’s one of the year’s best 500 level fields and we get a dandy in Jiri Lehecka vs Hubert Hurkacz.

Hurkacz’s win probability is a tick below 50%, while Lehecka is favoured to win at 1.82 odds. The handicap is zero games and the total games line is 24.

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Jon Reid’s Lehecka vs Hurkacz prediction is for Lehecka to win.

Jiri Lehecka vs Hubert Hurkacz Prediction: In Form Lehecka to Tackle Up and Down Hurkacz

• Prediction: Lehecka to win
• Best Odds: 1.87
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 4/10

Odds as at 12:00 am UK Time on February 5th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

I’m not sure if the tour is catching up to the more one dimensional game of Hurkacz, the big Pole is still feeling the lingering effects of an injury or a combination of both, but he has not impressed me this year. He came through the last round with ease, but at this point, it’s pretty well understood that last summer’s breakout star, Flavio Cobolli, isn’t fully fit, so I don’t put a lot of stock in that victory.

The market seems to believe that win means Hurkacz is back though as we’ve seen a decent-sized shift in the odds. I’ll take the more versatile player and better mover that also has the firepower to keep pace with the Hurkacz serve in this one though.

We’ve also seen that the courts have reverted to a kind of slower hard court, which is what we’ve been accustomed to in the past, with the exception of a randomly quick surface in 2024.

If you’re feeling frisky, you could also give up a one-game head start to pump the odds to 2.07. The -0.5 and -1 numbers are not key in tennis and that’s a big discount. The one concern I’ll warn you about is that Hurkacz does tend to serve first when he wins the coin toss and should Lehecka choke over a break of serve, the handicap could be lost fairly easily.

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Jiri Lehecka Recent Form

What a start to the year it’s been for Lehecka. It’s the kind of stretch we should expect from him to be fair. He’s been around long enough to know the demands of the ATP’s primary circuit, he has huge weapons, he’s still young and he doesn’t have issues physically or on a given surface to hold him back.

When he puts it all together, he’s more than capable of putting win streaks together, which is precisely what he’s done to kick off 2025. He won the title in Brisbane, made the second week in Melbourne only losing to a certain Novak Djokovic, won a match representing his native Czech Republic at Davis Cup and breezed through his opening round against Alexei Popyrin here.

Good form, weapons to stick with Hurkacz and more athletic. I see no reason he shouldn’t be a clear favourite in this match. To the traders’ credit at the sportsbooks, they did have him priced up at 1.71 at open. This (incorrect) drift is due to those in the betting markets.

Hubert Hurkacz Recent Form

I think the United Cup had many people believing the short offseason had done the world No. 21 some good, as he won a few matches and took Taylor Fritz all the way to a deciding set tiebreak, but I’m not so sure.

His wins this year? Against Alexander Shevchenko, Billy Harris (and that was much closer than he would’ve expected), a likely unfit Flavio Cobolli and Tallon Griekspoor. That’s it. For me, Lehecka isn’t just better than all those players, he is also in better form than all of them and doesn’t match up all that poorly with the big-serving 27-year-old.

He may find one of his untouchable days on serve and if that happens, I’ll deal with it, but I’m not sure he’s at the level I’d need to give him a near coin flip chance against Lehecka.

Jiri Lehecka vs Hubert Hurkacz H2H – Stat of the Match

The lone meeting between Lehecka and Hurkacz was actually at this very tournament last season. In an unsurprising turn, it was a close one, decided in a third set tiebreak won by Hurkacz. The Pole doesn’t seem as strong post-Wimbledon as he was pre-Wimbledon though and Lehecka has been in terrific form this season.

Since the start of August (the post-Wimbledon period I was referring to), Lehecka’s hold plus break percentage has also been a few points higher on hard courts at the main tour level.

Hurkacz has managed to hold serve fairly easily, but his break percentage is down below 14%.

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