Jiri Lehecka vs Benjamin Bonzi Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 1/16/25

For our second preview down at the Australian Open, we’ll look at Jiri Lehecka vs Benjamin Bonzi.

Bonzi’s win probability is only 26.7%, while Lehecka is favoured to win at 1.31 odds. The handicap is five games and the total games line is 37.

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Jon Reid’s Lehecka vs Bonzi prediction is for Lehecka to cover the handicap.

Jiri Lehecka vs Benjamin Bonzi Prediction: Bonzi Overmatches Against Big Hitting Czech

• Prediction: Lehecka -5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.91
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds as at 2:30 am UK Time on January 16th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

The Australian swing has once again treated Lehecka well, as he has won his second tournament down under in as many years. It’s no surprise either. With his explosive game, he can end points real quickly on serve and ensure the majority of pressure in most matches is applied to his opponent’s serve.

With his power being fairly volatile at times, shorter rallies also mean a reduced risk of missed groundstrokes resulting in losing points.

Bonzi has also looked strong to this point, but there’s an issue for Bonzi when it comes to playing up against legitimate tour level opposition. He went on a long winning streak at the end of last season indoors on the Challenger circuit, and he’s won a fair few matches so far this year, but the two matches where he played tour level opposition that can generate pace, he was hit off the court (by Nicolas Jarry and Miomir Kecmanovic).

Lehecka is probably the toughest opponent he’s played and certainly one of the bigger hitters he’s come up against.

Bonzi was also worrying with how his return game fell apart down the stretch last round against a lucky loser who is found primarily in Challenger Tour tournaments himself.

Five games may seem like a lot, but I make this handicap closer to six, with Lehecka potentially dropping a set on occasion, but also being the far more likely candidate to win a lopsided 6-0, 6-1 or 6-2 set.

Jiri Lehecka Recent Form

Not only Lehecka managed to win every match he’s played to this point in Australia, but Lehecka hasn’t even been on court all that long, thus alleviating any concerns about potential fatigue. For starters, he had a week off between his Brisbane title and the start of the Australian Open.

Then there’s the fact that of his seven victories this season, three have come thanks to his opponent retiring, with a few of those keeping him on court for less than an hour.

With his game working well on the surface, a large talent advantage and what should be plenty of tennis left in his legs, I can’t see why he should have too many issues beating Bonzi fairly comprehensively.

Benjamin Bonzi Recent Form

Though he has an impressive win-loss tally standing at 8-2 on the young 2025 season, Bonzi has amassed several of those wins against lower ranked opposition and a lower calibre of player.

Francesco Passaro is not the greatest on hard courts and entered the main draw as a lucky loser from qualifying and received a retirement from an injured Grigor Dimitrov. Prior to that, he beat David Goffin, who has been downright awful this season in the opening.

In previous tournaments, Bonzi has beaten the likes of James McCabe (twice), Li Tu, Fabio Fognini (via retirement) and Adrian Andreev (via retirement). Not one of those players will be found consistently on the ATP Tour anytime soon.

His serve works decently, as does his forehand in quicker conditions. They’re not overpowering though and quality players with stronger groundstrokes can easily seize control of rallies against his second serve and take over baseline exchanges on the forehand wing.

Jiri Lehecka vs Benjamin Bonzi H2H – Stat of the Match

The head-to-head series may be tied 1-1, but those matches took place years ago and took place on clay courts. Very little to take away from those for this particular match.

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