Dusan Lajovic vs Timofey Skatov Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 3/28/25

With the odds simply coming too late day by day for the ATP matches at the Miami Open, we’ll continue to look to the Challenger circuit for our bets on Friday. I’ll once again look to a player who is typically found up on the main tour for a bet in the Dusan Lajovic vs Timofey Skatov match.

Skatov’s win probability is 40%, while Lajovic is favoured to win at 1.57 odds. The handicap is 2.5 games and the total games line is 22.

Jon Reid’s Lajovic vs Skatov prediction is for Lajovic to continue to roll in Girona.

Dusan Lajovic vs Timofey Skatov Prediction: Experienced Tour Level Dirt Baller Too Strong for Skatov

• Prediction: Lajovic -2.5 Games & Lajovic -3 Games
• Best Odds: 1.85 & 2.00
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 4/10 & 4/10

Odds as at 2:15 am UK Time on March 28th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

Just about had a full house on Thursday’s bets, but once again a player choked away a dominant lead, as we lost our Marton Fucsovics bets from a set and break up.

Encouraging part is that the analysis was there and the start was excellent. Let’s see if we can claw some more of the losses back with Lajovic, who has been superb this week and continues to prove that though he’s struggled a bit on the main tour, he’s still well clear of some of these players with more holes in their games.

Skatov is a fun clay court player to watch and he’s got quality in his game, but he’s a little too underpowered for my liking and without an opponent that tends to spew unforced errors on the other side of the net, he’s likely going to struggle to get himself out front and stay there.

I think Lajovic wins this in two sets more often than not, but with a fairly low handicap like this, there are certainly scorelines that would allow us to cover this in three sets as well. Happy to take a larger position on the Serbian’s side.

More tennis previews can be found on the expert insights page.

Dusan Lajovic Recent Form

To tell you the truth, this match was not going to be previewed had it not been for the fact that Lajovic gained direct entry into an ATP 250 next week in Romania. Had he been forced to go through qualifying, there would’ve been a legitimate risk he didn’t take this quarterfinal too seriously in order to have the chance at more points in Bucharest.

Luckily, he’s into the main draw there and with his ranking currently outside the top-100, there’s still plenty of incentive for him to do well in Girona. Three more wins would jettison him right back into that top-100 sphere and with his first two matches in Girona having combined to take less than 2h30m on court, he should have plenty left in the tank for this match, another one or two, and then a higher level tournament next week.

That brings me to his form. Obviously getting through matches that quickly means he has been playing pretty well. He hasn’t dropped a set and since going down an early break in the opening set of his first match, he’s been in cruise control.

A lot of tour calibre players are often seen as underpowered until they’re forced back down to the second circuit, where all of a sudden they look much stronger as the level of competition drops.

That’s the case for the 34-year-old who has a strong serve, plenty of weight on his forehand to push players behind the baseline, a bit of pace to hit through open space and whose one-handed backhand looks much less vulnerable on the clay and against guys who can’t rush it as easily and consistently.

Timofey Skatov Recent Form

While Lajovic has been efficient en route to the quarterfinals, Skatov had a brutal time getting past a fellow underpowered player that works the court well and gives very little away in the form of Radu Albot.

His war of attrition against the Moldovan lasted over 3h30m and actually saw other courts complete two matches in the time it took to finish that second round tilt.

Prior to that match, Skatov had looked really strong through qualifying and the opening round, but this is by far and away his toughest test on clay in his six matches this season. Heck, it might just be his toughest opponent of any he’s played in 2025.

He’s a bit too underpowered for me and as much as others may recall his inspirational run to an ATP quarterfinal in Sweden last year, I remember the matches he’s lost to guys like Frederico Ferreira Silva, Hynek Barton and Nerman Fatic in his last three tournaments on the clay.

I liked Lajovic at these numbers for a decent stake without the 3h37m match on Thursday for Skatov. Factor that in and I don’t mind losing a considerable sum if he somehow remains competitive for several hours against an even tougher opponent again on Friday.

Dusan Lajovic vs Timofey Skatov H2H – Stat of the Match

First meeting between these two. Makes sense with Lajovic spending the vast majority of the last several years on the ATP Tour, while Skatov has primarily plied his trade on the Challenger Tour.

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