Dusan Lajovic vs Mariano Navone Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, 11/4/24

Our first preview of the new week comes from the Belgrade Open. It’s one of the two ATP 250 events taking place in the final week of regular tournament action on the main circuit (though Challenger events will continue through the end of the month). Let’s look at Dusan Lajovic vs Mariano Navone.

The implied win probabilities in this matchup are nearly even with Lajovic at 1.89 odds and Navone coming in at 1.98. The handicap is 0 games and the total games line is 22.

Jon Reid’s Lajovic vs Navone prediction is for Lajovic to win.

Dusan Lajovic vs Mariano Navone Prediction: Back Home Favourite to Advance

• Prediction: Lajovic to win
• Best Odds: 1.89
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds updated at 12:00 am UK Time on November 4th, 2024.

The form here is being read into a bit too much for my money, with Navone being bet down far too much.

Lajovic has been terrible lately, but a lot of his losses have been due to hard-fought contests against decent opposition (more on that in a second). He’s also got the ability to stick around in longer rallies with Navone, as he too is a clay courter by nature, but he has far more offensive firepower to his game between his serve and forehand.

I think he’s been undervalued in the past on hard courts and in this spot, we’re certainly seeing a bit too much love for the Argentine. He’s improved in the last few tournaments on hard courts, but he’s still not quite at the same level as his more seasoned counterpart in this match.

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Dusan Lajovic Recent Form

Though the form has been pretty poor dating back to Umag in late July, I will say that I’m not all that down on the 34-year-old. His U.S. Open loss was a function of drawing Daniil Medvedev in the opening round (and he still snagged a set against one of the world’s best hardcourt players) and in his last two events, he’s lost by a razor-thin margin to Richard Gasquet and in three sets to one of the better young players out there in Jakub Mensik.

I’d make the case that Navone isn’t on the level of any of those three and that this is a great spot to back Lajovic in front of a supportive home crowd to snap his losing skid.

It appears as though someone in the market is betting against him since he hasn’t won in a few months and the lack of context on that angle is what I believe provides value for us to attack.

Mariano Navone Recent Form

As I alluded to earlier, I don’t think Navone is as helpless on hard courts as he once was. The lack of experience and his underpowered, topspin-heavy style clearly made it tough for him to adjust once he began playing on hard courts at the very top level of professional tennis, but he has managed to be slightly more competitive of late.

Still, he’s not near being a top-50 or top-75 hard courter on tour and there’s still a long way to go before he’s deserving of a 50-50 valuation against even an out-of-form Lajovic.The serve still needs to add some km/h and he could use some more pop and offensive output from the baseline. He can certainly win the longer rallies and induce errors, but if he’s playing a stronger server, he needs to be able to hold his own (literally), as all it takes is one game being broken to see him lose the set.

Progress has been made, but it’s not quite enough and the market is getting ahead of itself a bit too much for my liking.

His only three wins on hard courts this summer and fall have come against players that also prefer clay courts (Daniel Altmaier, Luciano Darderi and Thiago Monteiro), but none have the ability to translate their games to hard courts quite like Lajovic.

Dusan Lajovic vs Mariano Navone H2H – Stat of the Match

This is the first meeting between Lajovic and Navone.

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