Mark Lajal vs Beibit Zhukayev Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 1/24/25

We’ll have an Australian Open final preview coming out once the matches have wrapped up and the odds are released, but for our Friday previews, we’ll look to the ATP Challenger Tour. Let’s start at the Oeiras Open 3 and Mark Lajal vs Beitbit Zhukayev.

Zhukayev enters as the underdog, expected to win around 43% of the time, while Lajal is favoured to win at 1.65 odds. The handicap is 1.5 games and the total games line is 23.5.

Jon Reid’s Lajal vs Zhukayev prediction is for Lajal to cover the games handicap.

Mark Lajal vs Beibit Zhukayev Prediction: Back the More Well Rounded of the Big Servers to Progress

• Prediction: Lajal -2 Games
• Best Odds: 1.99
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as at 12:00 am UK Time on January 24th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

Two strong servers, neither guy’s game particularly refined from the baseline and yet I’ve gone for the favourite in this contest. Why?

For me, there are two things that distinguish Lajal from Zhukayev in this matchup. The first is that he is the better baseliner, even if he can be frustratingly erratic at times. He at least has the potential to play strong tennis as points get longer. Zhukayev is far more one dimensional for my money.

The other is simply that Lajal has simply shown glimpses of where he could be headed if he can ever reign in his aggressive game and firepower. That could be linked with the first point, but I do think he is a bit more athletic and in tougher Challenger fields has been a bit more competitive more often than his Kazakh opponent.

I’ll back him to win here by what really amounts to a single break of serve margin of victory.

More tennis previews can be found on the expert insights page.

Mark Lajal Recent Form

Lajal had to come through qualifying this week – albeit just one match – to reach the main draw, where I think he’s done an admirable job to make the quarterfinal stage.

He came back from a set down to beat Henrique Rocha, a home favourite who one would’ve expected to benefit greatly from the slower indoor courts, in a third set tiebreak and then sent a resurgent Yasutaka Uchiyama packing with ease in the second round.

I would actually make the case that each of his previous two opponents was a tougher test in these conditions than Zhukayev. Keep in mind, each individual match is its own entity, since the matchup is so crucial in betting this sport, but in terms of form, you can’t hold the quality of competition against the 21-year-old.

I’m not one to use rankings motivation as a reason for a bet, as that could end up being pressure to some and a driving force to win for others, but it’s also worth noting that Lajal is just two or three wins from a new career-high ranking as well!

Beibit Zhukayev Recent Form

After opening his season by continuing a worrying trend from late in 2024 that saw him lose from a set up, Zhukayev appears to have settled a bit as this block of tournaments in Portugal has progressed.

He did a nice job of reaching the quarterfinals a week ago at this venue, before losing to another fellow quick court player in Aleksandar Kovacevic (who went on to win the title at the second of three Challengers in Oeiras).

This week, as more and more players from Australian Open qualifying made their way back to Europe and into Challenger draws, the big-serving Kazakh actually had to qualify for the main draw, where he’s since won a pair of matches.

I think the draw this week has been kind, and other than Kovacevic who beat him in straightforward fashion, he hasn’t played very many players that would be on Lajal’s level talent wise on hard courts.

Mark Lajal vs Beibit Zhukayev H2H – Stat of the Match

These two have split the two previous encounters at this level, with this match coming in conditions slightly slower than the prior pair of matches.

Though both of these guys would prefer quicker conditions, I do think once you move onto slower courts, the player that’s a bit more well rounded and moves slightly better is the right side to back in a match expected to be pretty close, and for me, that’s the Estonian.

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