Mark Lajal vs Henrique Rocha Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, June 26th

We’re back to the Wimbledon qualifying draw for Wednesday’s men’s tennis preview. Let’s look at the Mark Lajal vs Henrique Rocha from second round action.

Rocha’s win probability is right around 50%, while Lajal is priced nearly the same at 1.91 odds. The handicap is 0 games and the total games line is 23.

Our Lajal vs Rocha prediction is for Lajal to win.

Mark Lajal vs Henrique Rocha (Wimbledon) Prediction: Back Better Quick Courter with Bigger Weapons

• Prediction: Lajal to win
• Best Odds: 1.91
• Bookmaker: Bet365
• Stakes: 4/10

Odds as at 2:30 am UK Time on June 26th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

This match comes down to a clash of styles, but I think Lajal checks a few more boxes for success on quicker courts than Lajal.

First, it’s by far his most successful surface and he’s far more experienced playing on quicker courts. Second, he has much more power on his serve and groundstrokes, which is likely to lead to more quick, cheap points on serve, meaning he’s less likely to face pressure from his opponent in his service games.

As for Rocha, the Portuguese is certainly having a breakout like campaign, but his path to victory is more going to be reliant on Lajal committing unforced errors. That would be more effective in slower conditions where his ability to put a lot of balls in play would be a bit more effective.

Though he’s had success on hard courts in the past at the lower ITF M25 level, he hasn’t proven himself at the Challenger level just yet against better players and has never won a professional match on indoor hard courts (the closest comparison we have to grass courts in terms of average speed and height of the bounce).

He will have a chance to win, but I don’t think it’s as high as the odds would suggest and I have him as the underdog in this matchup.

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Mark Lajal Recent Form

This is the first year playing on grass for Lajal, and he’s embraced the experience, with this qualifying draw being his third straight tournament on the lawns. It’s no surprise that he’d be happy to play on the grass, with a big serve, aggressive mindset, flatter hitting style and somewhat error prone game that can be managed when he isn’t forced to play nearly as many shots per point.

His previous success at the Challenger Tour level has almost exclusively come on quicker paced hard courts as well, which aren’t exactly the same, but do work as a decent comparable.

We just have a much larger sample of success for Lajal in these types of conditions than we do for his counterpart, so a price implying he’s in a dead heat in this contest is one I’m happy to attack.

Henrique Rocha Recent Form

Rocha is also playing his first professional grass court swing in 2024 and he’s now 1-1 after beating countryman Jaime Faria in a pair of tiebreaks on Monday. He lost his first match on the surface to Gregoire Barrere though, leading 7-6 before being picked apart.

As I mentioned earlier, he is a bit underpowered and prides himself on rugged defensive play and being able to prolong points. That could be effective against someone like Lajal, but it’ll be a much more difficult task to accomplish given the fact that he may find the power and aggressive nature of the ball striking on the other side of the net to be a bit much.

He’s certainly in with a chance though, and I have a feeling that either James Duckworth or Nicolas Moreno de Alboran would rather see him as the last hurdle for a spot in the main draw than Lajal.

Mark Lajal vs Henrique Rocha H2H – Stat of the Match

This is the first meeting between the two Challenger Tour competitors. Lajal typically sticks to quicker surface tournaments, while Rocha is more inclined to play on the red clay.

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