Dimitar Kuzmanov vs Gonzalo Oliveira Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 11/29/24

Our second match for the final day of previews for the year from the ATP Challenger Tour comes from the Dimitar Kuzmanov vs Goncalo Oliveira contest at the Manzanillo Open in Mexico.

Oliveira’s win probability is 40%, with Kuzmanov coming in as the favourite to win at 1.57 odds. The handicap is 2.5 games and the total games line is 22.5.

Jon Reid’s Kuzmanov vs Oliveira prediction is for Kuzmanov to cover the handicap.

Dimitar Kuzmanov vs Goncalo Oliveira Prediction: Oliveira Going From Easy Opponent to Sternest Test Left in Draw

• Prediction: Kuzmanov -2.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.86
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as at 8:30 pm UK Time on November 28th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

From backing Oliveira and getting extremely lucky to cover the games handicap last round to opposing him this time around. Don’t get me wrong, this is not simply because of his struggles against an inferior Felix Corwin. While that must be taken into consideration, it would be a bit rash to make it the entirety of one’s handicap.

This is also a different match and different opponent and must be treated as such. That said, that’s another reason to oppose the Venezuelan here. He goes from playing what I’d call a no-name player and struggling mightily after claiming a 4-1 lead to a bona fide Challenger player who may not be a natural hard courter, but is still superior talent wise to players in a Challenger 50 for the most part and with these courts playing relatively slowly, he doesn’t seem fazed at all.

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Dimitar Kuzmanov Recent Form

Coming over to the Americas has worked wonders for the veteran of the Challenger circuit. He’s now 5-1 in his six matches in Puerto Vallarta and Manzanillo, with all five victories coming in straight sets and just one of those 10 sets reaching 6-4 or worse.

He did lose to Canadian Liam Draxl, who is a more natural hard courter, is on the ascent and whose grinding style does help him in these slower conditions, but the victories have been fairly decisive.

I’ve long been a fan of Oliveira’s game, but his inexplicably poor errors and inability to close out mediocre players has plagued him for years. With Kuzmanov making a living beating players he can outwork and outlast and those who don’t do much better than him, this is actually a pretty good matchup for the Bulgarian.

Goncalo Oliveira Recent Form

We went over Oliveira’s form earlier in the week, before he played Felix Corwin. Though it hasn’t been a standout season by any means, I do respect the fact that after a horrific start for the Portuguese-turned-Venezuelan pro for his willingness to drop back to the ITF Tour to find his footing and then travel to Brazzaville to earn a Challenger Tour trophy.

The fact remains though, that while he’s amassed some wins in recent months, the quality of the competitors he’s done that against has been pretty low.

This is a step up in competition. I’d like to believe he can push Kuzmanov, but from what I’ve seen in recent weeks, I’m not convinced in the slightest.

Dimitar Kuzmanov vs Goncalo Oliveira H2H – Stat of the Match

The lone match these two contested came all the way back in 2019 at a Challenger tournament in Jerusalem. It went the way of Kuzmanov 7-6, 6-2. I’m not sure I’d put much weight into a match that took place five years ago though.

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