Clay the Court Natural: Jozef Kovalik vs Benjamin Bonzi Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, May 22nd

We continue our previews from the French Open, as players continue to do battle for one of the coveted 16 spots in the main draw. Let’s delve into Jozef Kovalik vs Benjamin Bonzi to start off our Wednesday previews. Our Kovalik vs Bonzi prediction is available below!

Bonzi’s win probability is about 44% while Kovalik is favored to win at 1.64 odds. The handicap is 2.5 games and the total games line is 22.5.

Our Kovalik vs Bonzi prediction is for Kovalik to cover the games handicap.

Kovalik vs Bonzi Prediction: Back the Clay Court Natural in 2nd Round Tilt

• Prediction: Kovalik -2.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.94
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 4/10

Odds as at 2:00 am UK Time on May 22nd, 2024. Odds may now differ.

After an impressive first win at Roland Garros, I’m willing to back Kovalik to get the job done on Wednesday as well. It’s another Frenchman on the other side of the net, as Kovalik goes from Benoit Paire to Benjamin Bonzi.

Luckily for him, Bonzi isn’t exactly the most astute player on the red dirt either. His game fares better on hard courts, where his somewhat underpowered game plays up and his playing style is more effective.

Kovalik, on the other hand, isn’t just in form (more on that in a minute), but is also a clay specialist stylistically. He plays with a fairly strong serve and forehand combination, has a decent amount of spin on his shots, and is capable of extending rallies and playing solid tennis from the baseline. I make him a favorite of at least 3.5 games (two break of serve margin of victory) and could make the case that the handicap should be -4. Our Kovalik vs Bonzi prediction is for Kovalik to cover the games handicap.

For a preview of the ATP Tour tournaments this week, head on over to the expert insights section.

Jozef Kovalik Recent Form

The 2023 season wasn’t kind to the 31-year-old, but this year has seen him in resurgent form and now back inside the world’s top 150.

Kovalik has looked more aggressive from the baseline and along with his solidity from the baseline and topspin-centric game, he’s reeled off a 18-6 record on the red stuff, which includes a pair of Challenger titles in Croatia and another final a few weeks ago in Mauthausen, Austria.

Benjamin Bonzi Recent Form

Just 10-18 on the year, Bonzi is in desperate need of a good run of form. He got off to a good start, coming back from a set down against Hugo Dellien in the opening round of qualifying, but he’s still lost more than he’s won clay this year – and that’s even though he’s played primarily at the lower Challenger level.

His tendency to commit unforced errors has hurt him in recent months, with the underpowered nature of his game also meaning he’s struggled to find enough offensive firepower to make up for said errors.

We’ll see if he can use his home grand slam as a springboard to get his season on track, but I wouldn’t hold my breath.

Kovalik vs Bonzi H2H – Stat of the Match

Kovalik has the lone win in this matchup. It was fairly recent in slower conditions on clay on the Challenger circuit in Split, Croatia. He won that 6-4, 6-3 in a fairly straightforward contest. Kovalik went unbroken and generated four times the number of breakpoints in that match.

It’s not just a stylistic edge on clay for him either. Kovalik has a raw clay elo approaching 140 points better than Bonzi’s and his blended elo is nearly 100 points higher. Only being a 2.5-game favorite seems like an undervaluation from numerous perspectives.

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