Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Valentin Vacherot Prediction, Expert Picks, Odds, H2H, 4/23/24

Our next preview from the ATP’s qualifying draw takes a look at Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Valentin Vacherot.

Vacherot’s win probability is only 44.8% while Kovacevic is favored to win at 1. odds. The handicap is 3.5 games and the total games line is 22.5.

We have more previews from the Mutua Madrid Open up over on the expert insights page.

Our Kovacevic vs Vacherot prediction is for the first set to go to a tiebreak.

Kovacevic vs Vacherot Prediction: Expect a Close Match Between Two Strong Servers at Altitude

• Prediction: Vacherto to win, Over 10.5 Games in the 1st set & Over 12.5 Games in the 1st set
• Best Odds: 2.23, 3.25 & 4.50
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle & bet365
• Stakes: 2/10, 1/10 & 1/10

Odds as at 1:00 am UK Time on April 23rd, 2024. Odds may now differ.

In this situation, however, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to believe that the first set plays out to a tiebreak more than 25% of the time.

Neither of these two played a set that resulted in a tiebreak in the opening round, but both played volatile, aggressive, and error-prone players. That may be skewing the numbers slightly in a much more serve-centric matchup.

I also think that in such a close matchup, the value also lies in backing the underdog – especially when the underdog has far more experience on European red clay courts.

Aleksandar Kovacevic Recent Form

Though it’s early in his clay court career, the surface has not been kind to the 25-year-old. Until Monday, his wins had either come on the green clay courts of the Challenger circuit in the southern United States or at the ITF Futures level.

Beating Matteo Gigante was his first win on the red dirt in Europe, but that alone isn’t enough to convince me that he’s improved all that much on the surface.

He still lost last week in Bucharest to an underpowered hard courter in Radu Albot and in Houston, he played a pair of close matches on much quicker Har Tru red clay.

That said, the altitude may not be on par with quicker clay (the bounce of the ball can still be different from the green clay or quicker red variation), but it certainly should help him, as his first serve becomes more difficult to put in play and thus makes it harder to break his serve.

I’m not the biggest believer in trends, as people tend to use them without adding needed context, but in Kovacevic’s case, there’s a reason he plays so many tiebreak sets (five in his last 11 sets). His serve is excellent, his return game not so much, and his one-handed backhand gives his opponents a target to pick on to rush him and generate more easy balls to put away when he can put those back in play.

Valentin Vacherot Recent Form

Vacherot began his season playing some weaker Challengers in Asia and that decision paid dividends. He began the year with titles in Nonthaburi (two of them) and Pune, riding his strong serve and forehand combination to victory against players who don’t typically have much success, even on the Challenger Tour.

Moving up to the main tour level has meant more struggles for the Monegasque, but he qualified for the 250 in Bucharest last week, before blowing a 6-0 lead in the opening set tiebreak and falling apart against the eventual champion, Marton Fucsovics.

A win against Austrian Jurij Rodionov is a pretty tough one to get in the opening round of qualifying, and that three-set win should serve him well. Rodionov has a decent serve, and can hit with many players, but is volatile in his play from the baseline, and that led to a few lopsided sets going either way.

His big serve and forehand combination should also serve him well and enable him to keep things close with his American counterpart on Tuesday.

Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Valentin Vacherot H2H – Stat of the Match

These two played once late last season, with the match going three sets and Kovacevic coming back from 6-7 down to win. That match in Temuco, Chile, however, was played on a hard court, which does favor the American.

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