Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Alibek Kachmazov Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 1/22/25

Our other preview for the day also comes from the Open Quimper Bretagne Occidentale from the ATP Challenger Tour as we look at a more serve-oriented matchup this time. Let’s dive into Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Alibek Kachmazov.

Kachmazov’s win probability is slightly below 40%, while Kovacevic is favoured to win at 1.58 odds. The handicap is 2.5 games and the total games line is 23.5.

Jon Reid’s Kovacevic vs Kachmazov prediction is for this to be a pretty competitive match in quick conditions.

Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Alibek Kachmazov Prediction

• Prediction: Over 10.5 Games in the 1st Set & Over 12.5 Games in the First Set
• Best Odds: 3.00 & 4.00
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stakes: 1/10 & 1/10

Odds as at 4:00 pm UK Time on January 21st, 2025. Odds may now differ.

After a much needed week for Kovacevic in Portugal, he moves onto the typically-quicker conditions in Quimper, where he’s tasked with a pretty decent quick court player and strong enough server in Kachmazov.

Now, after blowing through the draw in Oeiras, the American is obviously getting some decent respect in the markets. I will say, even though Kovacevic’s strengths are more suited to quicker courts, he’s also far more vulnerable when he’s on return with his less-than-stellar one handed backhand.

I’m not sure if fatigue will come into play with how efficiently Kovacevic won most of his matches last week, but if that were to be a factor, it would also mean returning (which takes a decent amount of energy against big servers) would be negatively impacted.

I’m going to back a very close first set here at higher odds, but I also don’t mind the price on Kachmazov as it nears 2.50.

More tennis previews can be found on the expert insights page.

Aleksandar Kovacevic Recent Form

As strong as Kovacevic’s first serve and forehand are, he’s yet another player that elected to employ a one-handed backhand that simply hasn’t ever been able to use it effectively or in defensive situations in quicker conditions.

After a brutal run of form that saw him win just five times in 18 tries from the U.S. Open until last week, Kovacevic managed to win consecutive matches for the first time since August just outside of Lisbon, and he won five to claim the title.

He did an excellent job against decent competition early on and though both Alexis Galarneau and Zsombor Piros did a better job of making him work in the last two rounds. Still, against some strong baseliners that extend rallies and give away nothing and strong point starters, he came through and won the title.

If he keeps it going he should be a favourite here, but this environment and opponent are probably better suited to exposing his weakhand on the backhand wing, so I’m not sold simply based on last week’s performance in slightly slower indoors conditions.

Alibek Kachmazov Recent Form

This is Kachmazov’s first match since the Australian summer, where he went 1-2. Tough to hold losses to Matteo Martineau and an in-rhythm Nikoloz Basilashvili against the Russian, but it is worth noting that while I like him to be competitive here, the player profile that beat him in quicker conditions down under is present on the other side of the net once more in France.

He did play some decently strong tennis in 2024 in quicker conditions though and went under the radar to an extent.

The serve is strong and he’s willing to play first strike tennis, but the problem is once that hasn’t netted him the point, his problem solving and point construction are not exactly positive attributes for his game.

Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Alibek Kachmazov H2H – Stat of the Match

These two have played twice before on hard courts, with each having won one matchup.

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