Pavel Kotov vs Alex Michelsen Prediction, Expert Picks, Odds, H2H, 5/8/24

The main draw is set to begin for the ATP side of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia on Wednesday. Qualifying has wrapped up and now a deluge of matches comes our way for the next four days. Let’s take a closer look at our Kotov vs Michelsen prediction!

Michelsen is expected to win 36%, with Kotov being favored to win at 1.50 odds. The handicap is 3.5 games and the total games line is 21.5.

Kotov vs Alex Prediction

• Prediction: Kotov -3.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.98
• Bookmaker: Unibet
• Stakes: 7/10

Odds as of 10:00 pm UK Time on May 8th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Not only has Michelsen been pretty poor on red clay in the few matches he’s played on the surface, but he’s also shown the propensity to allow favorites to cover the games handicap in matches that he manages to send three sets.

It’s hard to hold his struggles on the surface against him, considering he’s so young and from a country that plays scarcely on the red clay typically found in Europe and South America.

For this portion of the calendar, he’s almost a victim of his success on quicker surfaces. After coming up through the Challenger level and playing extremely well in Newport last season, he managed to solidify his spot as a tour-level regular. The problem is, he’s skipped right to playing other tour-level pros on clay with very little experience. The result has been a slew of lopsided defeats.

For his part, Kotov has been decent on the dirt in the last few years and has certainly shown more comfort on the surface than his American counterpart. He has a strong serve, a nice forehand, and the ability to play prolonged points, giving him a well-rounded game that should be able to both find holds of serve and apply pressure in Michelsen service games.

I’ll be selling half games on the handicap here as well, but for our tip, let’s go with a cheap -3.5 games. I’ll keep the staking large, but not quite a max bet simply because Kotov has been known to check out of matches mentally, and I think that should be accounted for in the price a bit. There’s still plenty of value to invest in here though. Our Kotov vs Michelsen is for Kotov to cover the handicap.

Our expert insights page has more previews from the tennis world for Wednesday’s action from the Italian capital.

Pavel Kotov Recent Form

After a terrible stretch on hard courts after the Australian Open, Kotov has rebounded nicely in recent weeks.

He’s 5-3 now on the clay with one loss to the world’s most in-form player (Jannik Sinner) in Madrid and he was a service hold from sending that one three sets. He’s won as an underdog once and covered most of his game handicaps as a favorite, indicating that the market may still catch up with his valuations.

The three losses he’s suffered this clay season have been to a pair of clay-first tour regulars and the aforementioned Sinner. Nothing suggests he should struggle with an American hard courter with little experience to his name on clay.

Alex Michelsen Recent Form

In his first campaign playing on traditional red clay with any sort of regularity, Michelsen is just 1-5. The win came against a low-level Challenger player in Munich and even that was a fairly close two-set contest.

He’s been thrashed by the opposition that plays with any comfort and semblance of consistency on the dirt (comparable to someone like Kotov) and has a loss to the volatile and somewhat out-of-form Lorenzo Sonego.

I’m happy to oppose Michelsen in this matchup with any handicap of 4.5 games or better.

Pavel Kotov vs Alex Michelsen H2H – Stat of the Match

With Michelsen’s time at the professional level still in its infancy (relatively speaking), it’s not all that surprising that these two have yet to square off.

Elo rating-wise, the gulf between these two is over 400 points in raw clay elo and about 250 points in the blended rating. Either way, per Tennis Abstract, that implies Kotov wins this match somewhere near 80% of the time.

Now this is just one data point, but even with context (form, matchup, surface), there is nothing to suggest Michelsen would be more competitive than that. Yet the odds imply a Kotov win just 66% of the time and the -3.5 game handicap is derived from that percentage.

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