Pavel Kotov vs Alexis Galarneau Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 3/17/25

As the focus of the “Sunshine Double” shifts from the desert of California to South Florida and the Miami Open, we delve into a pair of qualifying matches to reach the ATP singles draw ahead of the main draw kicking off in a few days. The first bet we’ll make comes from the Pavel Kotov vs Alexis Galarneau match in the opening qualifying round.

Galarneau’s win probability is 49%, while Kotov is favoured to win at 1.76 odds. The handicap is 1.5 games and the total games line is 22.5.

Jon Reid’s Kotov vs Galarneau prediction is for Kotov to win.

Pavel Kotov vs Alexis Galarneau Prediction: Out of Form to Bounce Back against Canadian

• Prediction: Kotov to win
• Best Odds: 1.76
• Bookmaker: Unibet
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds as at 11:00 am UK Time on March 17th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

I won’t make the case that Galarneau isn’t in better form than Kotov at the moment. That would be a bit disingenuous. The 26-year-old native of Moscow has actually seen his ranking slip outside of the top-100 with more danger on the way if he doesn’t start winning soon, as a significant portion of his remaining points need to be defended in the coming months on clay.

Thing is, as poor as he’s been, he’s only really been blown out by a few players to start his 2025 season – one of them being prodigal talent that should end the season inside the top-15 or top-20 in the world barring injury, Joao Fonseca.

Galarneau is a tough competitor that makes a lot of balls and can certainly frustrate his opponents, but for as much as he’s won in the last year and a bit (since the start of 2024, he has over twice as many wins as Kotov), he’s still ranked below his foe in this contest.

That should tell you all you need to know about the quality of competition these two normally go up against.

Matchup wise, I don’t think Kotov will be in too much trouble. He’s fine in longer exchanges and not particularly error prone and without someone who can bully him and hit through him, he should be comfortable on court on Monday.

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Pavel Kotov Recent Form

Just 4-8 so far on the season, I’m sure Kotov will be looking for some form in what should be his last hard court tournament until summer.

I suppose the lone bright spot in that record? The four wins have all come against Challenger level players – which is exactly the category that the Canadian falls into.

The majority of his losses have also come against those with fairly strong serves or forehands (or both) and that is a descriptor I would not use when talking about Galarneau’s game.

If he can stay steady from the baseline and use his better serve and forehand combination to ensure he’s the one on the front foot, he should manage his way through.

Alexis Galarneau Recent Form

On the opposite end of the form spectrum is the 26-year-old from Montreal, who has racked up plenty of wins this season, but because of the Challengers he’s managed his wins in and their point structures, he’s still outside the top-150 in the world.

A trio of semifinals and another quarterfinal haven’t gone to waste though, as he is on the verge of setting a new career high in the rankings.

Galarneau’s game is predicated on his incredible solidity and ability to force his opponents to hit a lot of balls, hoping for the eventual unforced error.

The lack of power hasn’t prevented him from being competitive on the ATP’s second circuit, but it’s certainly capped his ability to make further inroads and crack the main circuit and top-100 in the rankings.

I do think that he can be competitive in this match, but even with his opponent out of form, asking him to win against someone who has still been a tour-level mainstay and competitive in a lot of those matches, for several years is a big ask.

Pavel Kotov vs Alexis Galarneau H2H – Stat of the Match

This is the first meeting between these two.

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