Pavel Kotov vs Jaime Faria Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 1/10/25

Though there’s more action on Friday on the ATP Challenger Tour, but the Australian Open draw is out and we’re going to look ahead to some of the Sunday matches down under that will happen overnight Saturday night in Europe and UK and on Saturday evening in North America.

Let’s begin with Pavel Kotov vs Jaime Faria in the return of best of five tennis!

Faria’s win probability is just over 40%, while Kotov is favoured to win at 1.61 odds. The handicap is 2.5 games and the total games line is 39.5.

Jon Reid’s Kotov vs Faria prediction is for Kotov to get back on track with a nice win.

Pavel Kotov vs Jaime Faria Prediction: Trust Experience and Sneaky Game of Kotov

• Prediction: Kotov -2.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.97
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as at 12:30 am UK Time on January th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

Laying just 2.5 games in a best of five set format with a good player who has been undervalued in the past and has played the last year on the main tour as Faria was finding his legs on the Challenger Tour is a no brainer for me.

Now, Faria has improved and he was an under-the-radar player to watch in qualifying. His serve translates well onto hard courts, as does his forehand and even decent serves and forehands can look more potent in these quicker conditions.

I’m also getting the player more used to playing in best of five set matches, which can be important if we see this extend to a fourth set. Kotov may not look like the fittest player, but we’ve seen him grind out long matches in major main draws before. Faria, who is probably more fit, has yet to be pushed in this format.

Ultimately, as much as I like the Portuguese, I’m just not sure that he’s ready to pull off an upset in a format that favours the better player by giving them more margin for error over 40% of the time.

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Pavel Kotov Recent Form

It’s been a tough start to 2025 for Kotov, who has won just one match from the three he’s contested. The toughest part is that one of those losses came in a match that featured three tiebreaks in qualifying for Adelaide against an Aussie who likes the conditions on offer and the other was fairly close against a big-serving lefty in Hong Kong. Those were both understandable and, more importantly, to players that are probably tougher than Faria at this point.

His game isn’t going to blow you away, but he will find enough cheap points to keep him competitive in quicker conditions and his baseline game is just fine – there’s a reason he hasn’t shot up the rankings on the main tour, but is still playing there consistently.

He’s certainly a player I would trust in a match like this and am happy to give up the 2.5-game head start in a best of five tennis match.

Jaime Faria Recent Form

After a disappointing start to the season, losing to clay court player Roman Andres Burruchaga at a Challenger event, Faria bounced back nicely, qualifying for the main draw by winning three matches. A few of those wins were fairly impressive, with Gijs Brouwer and Mark Lajal being fairly big ball strikers who can be tricky in quick conditions, but both are also very error prone players.

I’m interested to see how he deals with Kotov’s more well-rounded game, even if the power should be more manageable.

Faria’s serve and attacking game is also worth keeping an eye on as the match rolls along. If he loses a bit of bite on that first serve, he may begin to look like someone that’s going to rely on defending in conditions that simply don’t reward that style.

Pavel Kotov vs Jaime Faria H2H – Stat of the Match

This is the first meeting between the two, with Faria having basically just joined the Challenger ranks as Kotov was moving up to the main tour. That is also another difference in favour of Kotov, who has basically been playing at a higher tier for a few seasons now.

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