Pavel Kotov vs Alexander Bublik Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, 5/23/24

The first preview for Thursday’s action comes from the Open Parc in Lyon, where we’ll look more into Pavel Kotov vs Alexander Bublik. Jon Reid’s Pavel Kotov vs Alexander Bublik prediction at 1.79 odds is available below!

Bublik’s win probability is only 46.3%, despite being the more accomplished of the two, while Kotov is favored to win at 1.77 odds. The handicap is 1.5 games and the total games line is 22.5.

Kotov vs Bublik Prediction: Kotov to Beat Likely Unmotivated Bublik

• Prediction: Kotov to win
• Best Odds: 1.79
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as at 1:15 am UK Time on May 23rd, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Though many may not know Kotov quite as well as the higher-ranked and more entertaining Kazakh, he does have a game more well-suited to clay, and more importantly, he should be far more motivated to keep progressing through this ATP 250 draw.

Though there’s no doubt that Bublik has more talent, we know how he feels about clay-court tennis. He’s not a fan of the slower conditions and he despises having to play long rallies, struggling to generate winners.

Last year we also saw him play one of the more egregious tanked matches of the season against Marcos Giron. The venue? Geneva. The week before the French Open.

Sure, he’s won a match already this week, but beating Aleksandar Vukic on slow red clay is about as meaningless a win as one can have at the main tour level.

I’ll take the player who is likely hungry for the rankings points, has an underrated clay court game, and is barely priced as a favorite.

We have a preview from the other 250 tournaments in Geneva also posted. That can be found on the expert insights page. Our Pavel Kotov vs Alexander Bublik prediction is for Kotov to win.

Pavel Kotov Recent Form

Kotov continues to quietly progress towards making his top-50 debut. In fact, this win would get him to No. 53 in the rankings come Monday, and making the final would likely mean that top-50 debut.

Whether he know this and is more motivated? I’m not sure. Luckily, that’s not a big part of the handicap and we aren’t relying on an assumption.

We’re relying on his strong clay court game, his ability to find plenty of holds of serve himself (across surfaces), and his strong form to justify this bet.

The motivation to win a title he needs far more than Bublik and make the top 50 would just be the cherry on top.

Kotov has already reached the semifinals in Marrakech losing to clay courter Roberto Carballes Baena, the third round in Madrid, losing to Jannik Sinner (and he actually served to take a set from the most in-form player in the world), and now has reached the quarters in Lyon.

We’ve also had bets on him and cashed as we recognized that Kotov has been undervalued throughout the spring clay swing. That hasn’t changed yet, and I’ll look to take advantage again.

Alexander Bublik Recent Form

On any other week and on any other surface, these odds would look wildly different. In other words, the market seems to understand the situation here and has adjusted accordingly.

Knowing Bublik and some of the losses he’s had both the week before a grand slam tournament and the players he’s lost to, I’m not sure the market has gone far enough. I have half a mind to look up alternate games handicaps to try and bet and maximize the value we may have betting against Bublik.

Even if it weren’t the week before the French Open, the form for the big serving Bublik on clay has been rather poor. He won a few matches in Madrid, though that tournament is played at altitude where his big serving and big hitting are rewarded a bit more. He also had to come back from 1-6 down against a weaponless Roberto Carballes Baena and beat another poor clay courter in Ben Shelton.

At venues with slower conditions on offer? He was beaten in straight sets by Nuno Borges (who we backed that day) in Rome and won a total of two games in two sets against Borna Coric. Neither of those guys is a world-beater by any stretch.

There is no reason for me to believe we won’t see a similar style tank to what we saw in Switzerland a year ago, and even if we don’t, his style is incompatible with clay and we’re in with a good chance of winning anyway.

Kotov vs Bublik H2H – Stat of the Match

These two have met once back in 2019 when Bublik beat Kotov in three sets at a Challenger event in Hungary. A match from five years ago means very little and the fact that it was played indoors, where the advantage shifts in a big way towards Bublik.

Safer Gambling

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.